A tale of clusters : No resolvable periodicity in the terrestrial impact cratering record
(2017) In Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 467(3). p.2545-2551- Abstract
Rampino & Caldeira carry out a circular spectral analysis (CSA) of the terrestrial impact cratering record over the past 260 million years (Ma), and suggest a ∼26 Ma periodicity of impact events. For some of the impacts in that analysis, new accurate and high-precision ('robust'; 2SE < 2 per cent) 40Ar-39Ar ages have recently been published, resulting in significant age shifts. In a CSA of the updated impact age list, the periodicity is strongly reduced. In a CSA of a list containing only impacts with robust ages, we find no significant periodicity for the last 500 Ma. We show that if we relax the assumption of a fully periodic impact record, assuming it to be a mix of a periodic and a random component... (More)
Rampino & Caldeira carry out a circular spectral analysis (CSA) of the terrestrial impact cratering record over the past 260 million years (Ma), and suggest a ∼26 Ma periodicity of impact events. For some of the impacts in that analysis, new accurate and high-precision ('robust'; 2SE < 2 per cent) 40Ar-39Ar ages have recently been published, resulting in significant age shifts. In a CSA of the updated impact age list, the periodicity is strongly reduced. In a CSA of a list containing only impacts with robust ages, we find no significant periodicity for the last 500 Ma. We show that if we relax the assumption of a fully periodic impact record, assuming it to be a mix of a periodic and a random component instead, we should have found a periodic component if it contributes more than ∼80 per cent of the impacts in the last 260 Ma. The difference between our CSA and the one by Rampino & Caldeira originates in a subset of 'clustered' impacts (i.e. with overlapping ages). The ∼26 Ma periodicity seemingly carried by these clusters alone is strongly significant if tested against a random distribution of ages, but this significance disappears if it is tested against a distribution containing (randomly spaced) clusters. The presence of a few impact age clusters (e.g. from asteroid break-up events) in an otherwise random impact record can thus give rise to false periodicity peaks in a CSA. There is currently no evidence for periodicity in the impact record.
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- author
- Meier, Matthias M.M. LU and Holm-Alwmark, Sanna LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2017-06-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Asteroids: general, Comets: general, Earth, Meteorites, Meteoroids, Meteors, Minor planets, Planets, Satellites: surfaces
- in
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- volume
- 467
- issue
- 3
- pages
- 7 pages
- publisher
- Oxford University Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85057318408
- ISSN
- 0035-8711
- DOI
- 10.1093/mnras/stx211
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Funding Information: The authors thank T. Kenkmann and A. A. Plant for their comments and discussion and C. Bailer-Jones for a thorough and helpful review. This work has been partially supported by a Swiss National Science Foundation Ambizione grant to MM.
- id
- cb1e1181-655b-49e4-93a0-3b1080b01130
- date added to LUP
- 2022-03-31 12:28:59
- date last changed
- 2022-03-31 17:00:27
@article{cb1e1181-655b-49e4-93a0-3b1080b01130,
abstract = {{<p>Rampino & Caldeira carry out a circular spectral analysis (CSA) of the terrestrial impact cratering record over the past 260 million years (Ma), and suggest a ∼26 Ma periodicity of impact events. For some of the impacts in that analysis, new accurate and high-precision ('robust'; 2SE < 2 per cent) <sup>40</sup>Ar-<sup>39</sup>Ar ages have recently been published, resulting in significant age shifts. In a CSA of the updated impact age list, the periodicity is strongly reduced. In a CSA of a list containing only impacts with robust ages, we find no significant periodicity for the last 500 Ma. We show that if we relax the assumption of a fully periodic impact record, assuming it to be a mix of a periodic and a random component instead, we should have found a periodic component if it contributes more than ∼80 per cent of the impacts in the last 260 Ma. The difference between our CSA and the one by Rampino & Caldeira originates in a subset of 'clustered' impacts (i.e. with overlapping ages). The ∼26 Ma periodicity seemingly carried by these clusters alone is strongly significant if tested against a random distribution of ages, but this significance disappears if it is tested against a distribution containing (randomly spaced) clusters. The presence of a few impact age clusters (e.g. from asteroid break-up events) in an otherwise random impact record can thus give rise to false periodicity peaks in a CSA. There is currently no evidence for periodicity in the impact record.</p>}},
author = {{Meier, Matthias M.M. and Holm-Alwmark, Sanna}},
issn = {{0035-8711}},
keywords = {{Asteroids: general; Comets: general; Earth; Meteorites; Meteoroids; Meteors; Minor planets; Planets; Satellites: surfaces}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{06}},
number = {{3}},
pages = {{2545--2551}},
publisher = {{Oxford University Press}},
series = {{Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}},
title = {{A tale of clusters : No resolvable periodicity in the terrestrial impact cratering record}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stx211}},
doi = {{10.1093/mnras/stx211}},
volume = {{467}},
year = {{2017}},
}