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Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Engström, Kerstin LU ; Lindeskog, Mats LU ; Olin, Stefan LU ; Hassler, John and Smith, Benjamin LU (2017) In Earth System Dynamics 8(3). p.773-799
Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess... (More)

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 "Taking the green road"). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Earth System Dynamics
volume
8
issue
3
pages
27 pages
publisher
Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
external identifiers
  • scopus:85028805349
  • wos:000409250800001
ISSN
2190-4979
DOI
10.5194/esd-8-773-2017
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ccea81db-90af-48c5-ba7d-fd7c21914ed5
date added to LUP
2017-09-26 11:09:35
date last changed
2018-01-16 13:26:39
@article{ccea81db-90af-48c5-ba7d-fd7c21914ed5,
  abstract     = {<p>Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 "Taking the green road"). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.</p>},
  author       = {Engström, Kerstin and Lindeskog, Mats and Olin, Stefan and Hassler, John and Smith, Benjamin},
  issn         = {2190-4979},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {09},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {773--799},
  publisher    = {Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh},
  series       = {Earth System Dynamics},
  title        = {Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017},
  volume       = {8},
  year         = {2017},
}