Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies
(2016) In Energy Strategy Reviews 13-14. p.236-247- Abstract
- Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is... (More)
- Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.
The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve. (Less) - Abstract (Swedish)
- Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is... (More)
- Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.
The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/cd2756b1-ac10-4c11-af31-edaf2acc8049
- author
- Månsson, André LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2016-11
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Energy security, Mobility, transition, Transport policy, Uncertainty
- in
- Energy Strategy Reviews
- volume
- 13-14
- pages
- 11 pages
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85002369602
- wos:000390318600021
- ISSN
- 2211-467X
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.004
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- cd2756b1-ac10-4c11-af31-edaf2acc8049
- date added to LUP
- 2016-12-07 13:45:48
- date last changed
- 2022-03-01 17:49:02
@article{cd2756b1-ac10-4c11-af31-edaf2acc8049, abstract = {{Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.<br/><br/>The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve.}}, author = {{Månsson, André}}, issn = {{2211-467X}}, keywords = {{Energy security; Mobility; transition; Transport policy; Uncertainty}}, language = {{eng}}, pages = {{236--247}}, publisher = {{Elsevier}}, series = {{Energy Strategy Reviews}}, title = {{Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.004}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.004}}, volume = {{13-14}}, year = {{2016}}, }