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Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies

Månsson, André LU (2016) In Energy Strategy Reviews 13-14. p.236-247
Abstract (Swedish)
Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is... (More)
Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.

The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve. (Less)
Abstract
Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is... (More)
Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.

The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Energy security, Mobility, transition , Transport policy, Uncertainty
in
Energy Strategy Reviews
volume
13-14
pages
11 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85002369602
  • wos:000390318600021
ISSN
2211-467X
DOI
10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.004
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
cd2756b1-ac10-4c11-af31-edaf2acc8049
date added to LUP
2016-12-07 13:45:48
date last changed
2017-09-18 11:30:30
@article{cd2756b1-ac10-4c11-af31-edaf2acc8049,
  abstract     = {Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.<br/><br/>The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve.},
  author       = {Månsson, André},
  issn         = {2211-467X},
  keyword      = {Energy security,Mobility,transition  ,Transport policy,Uncertainty},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {236--247},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Energy Strategy Reviews},
  title        = {Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.004},
  volume       = {13-14},
  year         = {2016},
}