Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : A summary
(2022) In Earth System Dynamics 13(1). p.457-593- Abstract
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for... (More)
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.
(Less)
- author
- organization
- publishing date
- 2022-03
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Earth System Dynamics
- volume
- 13
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 137 pages
- publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85127104731
- ISSN
- 2190-4979
- DOI
- 10.5194/esd-13-457-2022
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- cd2e3fe0-e51b-4eba-8e4b-1397d42a5b79
- date added to LUP
- 2022-06-14 14:14:31
- date last changed
- 2022-06-14 14:14:31
@article{cd2e3fe0-e51b-4eba-8e4b-1397d42a5b79,
abstract = {{<p>Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins. </p>}},
author = {{Markus Meier, H. E. and Kniebusch, Madline and Dieterich, Christian and Gröger, Matthias and Zorita, Eduardo and Elmgren, Ragnar and Myrberg, Kai and Ahola, Markus P. and Bartosova, Alena and Bonsdorff, Erik and Börgel, Florian and Capell, Rene and Carlén, Ida and Carlund, Thomas and Carstensen, Jacob and Christensen, Ole B. and Dierschke, Volker and Frauen, Claudia and Frederiksen, Morten and Gaget, Elie and Galatius, Anders and Haapala, Jari J. and Halkka, Antti and Hugelius, Gustaf and Hünicke, Birgit and Jaagus, Jaak and Jüssi, Mart and Käyhkö, Jukka and Kirchner, Nina and Kjellström, Erik and Kulinski, Karol and Lehmann, Andreas and Lindström, Göran and May, Wilhelm and Miller, Paul A. and Mohrholz, Volker and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Pavón-Jordán, Diego and Quante, Markus and Reckermann, Marcus and Rutgersson, Anna and Savchuk, Oleg P. and Stendel, Martin and Tuomi, Laura and Viitasalo, Markku and Weisse, Ralf and Zhang, Wenyan}},
issn = {{2190-4979}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{1}},
pages = {{457--593}},
publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
series = {{Earth System Dynamics}},
title = {{Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : A summary}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022}},
doi = {{10.5194/esd-13-457-2022}},
volume = {{13}},
year = {{2022}},
}