Probabilistic analysis of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures in Sweden
(2022) In Structure and Infrastructure Engineering- Abstract
- Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. However, up to now this effect has not been quantified in literature. The current study addresses this gap and presents a probabilistic approach for quantitatively assessing this effect. For this purpose, five different stochastic creep models (i.e. Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of the historical and future climatic conditions in Sweden to assess the long-term creep coefficient and the subsequent stress redistribution of an axially loaded column. While some creep models show similar percentage increases in the long-term creep coefficient in all Swedish counties, other creep models show higher... (More)
- Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. However, up to now this effect has not been quantified in literature. The current study addresses this gap and presents a probabilistic approach for quantitatively assessing this effect. For this purpose, five different stochastic creep models (i.e. Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of the historical and future climatic conditions in Sweden to assess the long-term creep coefficient and the subsequent stress redistribution of an axially loaded column. While some creep models show similar percentage increases in the long-term creep coefficient in all Swedish counties, other creep models show higher percentage increase values for northern than for southern counties. The highest increase in the end-of-century creep coefficient is found using models B4 and B4s (e.g. over 40% increase is possible for northernmost Sweden, i.e. Norrbotten county, under RCP8.5). Furthermore, the current article also shows that the end-of-century creep coefficient is more sensitive to uncertainties not related to the climate (i.e. parameter and creep modelling uncertainties) than to climate uncertainty.
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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/cf69c187-60ec-46fe-b58a-3e0ae8795fcc
- author
- Nasr, Amro LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2022
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
- publisher
- Taylor & Francis
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85141590619
- ISSN
- 1573-2479
- DOI
- 10.1080/15732479.2022.2141269
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- cf69c187-60ec-46fe-b58a-3e0ae8795fcc
- date added to LUP
- 2022-11-11 13:40:35
- date last changed
- 2022-11-21 04:11:13
@article{cf69c187-60ec-46fe-b58a-3e0ae8795fcc,
abstract = {{Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. However, up to now this effect has not been quantified in literature. The current study addresses this gap and presents a probabilistic approach for quantitatively assessing this effect. For this purpose, five different stochastic creep models (i.e. Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of the historical and future climatic conditions in Sweden to assess the long-term creep coefficient and the subsequent stress redistribution of an axially loaded column. While some creep models show similar percentage increases in the long-term creep coefficient in all Swedish counties, other creep models show higher percentage increase values for northern than for southern counties. The highest increase in the end-of-century creep coefficient is found using models B4 and B4s (e.g. over 40% increase is possible for northernmost Sweden, i.e. Norrbotten county, under RCP8.5). Furthermore, the current article also shows that the end-of-century creep coefficient is more sensitive to uncertainties not related to the climate (i.e. parameter and creep modelling uncertainties) than to climate uncertainty.<br/><br/>}},
author = {{Nasr, Amro}},
issn = {{1573-2479}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Taylor & Francis}},
series = {{Structure and Infrastructure Engineering}},
title = {{Probabilistic analysis of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures in Sweden}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2022.2141269}},
doi = {{10.1080/15732479.2022.2141269}},
year = {{2022}},
}