Spatiotemporal analysis of nonlinear trends in precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 from multiple observation-based gridded products
(2019) In International Journal of Climatology 39(4). p.2120-2135- Abstract
Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 were analysed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Three widely used and recognized high-resolution observation-based gridded precipitation products, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis data and the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES derived data set (EOBS), were used and compared. Comparison among different products showed that the CRU used a considerably lower number of gauge stations (maximum 36) in the construction of gridded product over Germany and should be used with great caution for other applications, and overall CRU... (More)
Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 were analysed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Three widely used and recognized high-resolution observation-based gridded precipitation products, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis data and the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES derived data set (EOBS), were used and compared. Comparison among different products showed that the CRU used a considerably lower number of gauge stations (maximum 36) in the construction of gridded product over Germany and should be used with great caution for other applications, and overall CRU presented less precipitation and smaller inter-annual variability; GPCC and EOBS agreed well in the spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation, as well as the identified trends. The spatiotemporal analysis of trends showed that trends in precipitation during 1951–2013 were, in most cases, highly nonlinear and varying over time. In particular, the spring, summer and autumn precipitation showed large variations in trends. Therefore, the assumption of linear trends on which previous studies were based is invalid. Annual precipitation showed increasing trends in over 66% of Germany (particularly northern and eastern Germany), and the magnitude of increasing trends were generally enhanced over time, e.g. GPCC showed that the average magnitude of increasing trends rose from 6.3% for the 1951–1980 period to 12% for the 1951–2013 period. There were considerable spatial and temporal variabilities in trends in seasonal precipitation totals over Germany. This study is among one of the first studies applying the EEMD method to a comprehensive analysis of time-varying trends in precipitation over Germany, which is expected to improve our understanding of the complex and nonlinear regional climate system.
(Less)
- author
- Duan, Zheng LU ; Chen, Qiuwen ; Chen, Cheng ; Liu, Junzhi ; Gao, Hongkai ; Song, Xianfeng and Wei, Meng
- publishing date
- 2019-03-30
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- climate change, EEMD, Europe, rainfall, time-varying, variability
- in
- International Journal of Climatology
- volume
- 39
- issue
- 4
- pages
- 16 pages
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85059021433
- ISSN
- 0899-8418
- DOI
- 10.1002/joc.5939
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- d0e984c9-632b-418f-b5c2-a4f06766d746
- date added to LUP
- 2019-12-22 20:12:53
- date last changed
- 2022-04-18 19:38:45
@article{d0e984c9-632b-418f-b5c2-a4f06766d746,
abstract = {{<p>Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 were analysed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Three widely used and recognized high-resolution observation-based gridded precipitation products, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis data and the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES derived data set (EOBS), were used and compared. Comparison among different products showed that the CRU used a considerably lower number of gauge stations (maximum 36) in the construction of gridded product over Germany and should be used with great caution for other applications, and overall CRU presented less precipitation and smaller inter-annual variability; GPCC and EOBS agreed well in the spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation, as well as the identified trends. The spatiotemporal analysis of trends showed that trends in precipitation during 1951–2013 were, in most cases, highly nonlinear and varying over time. In particular, the spring, summer and autumn precipitation showed large variations in trends. Therefore, the assumption of linear trends on which previous studies were based is invalid. Annual precipitation showed increasing trends in over 66% of Germany (particularly northern and eastern Germany), and the magnitude of increasing trends were generally enhanced over time, e.g. GPCC showed that the average magnitude of increasing trends rose from 6.3% for the 1951–1980 period to 12% for the 1951–2013 period. There were considerable spatial and temporal variabilities in trends in seasonal precipitation totals over Germany. This study is among one of the first studies applying the EEMD method to a comprehensive analysis of time-varying trends in precipitation over Germany, which is expected to improve our understanding of the complex and nonlinear regional climate system.</p>}},
author = {{Duan, Zheng and Chen, Qiuwen and Chen, Cheng and Liu, Junzhi and Gao, Hongkai and Song, Xianfeng and Wei, Meng}},
issn = {{0899-8418}},
keywords = {{climate change; EEMD; Europe; rainfall; time-varying; variability}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{03}},
number = {{4}},
pages = {{2120--2135}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{International Journal of Climatology}},
title = {{Spatiotemporal analysis of nonlinear trends in precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 from multiple observation-based gridded products}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5939}},
doi = {{10.1002/joc.5939}},
volume = {{39}},
year = {{2019}},
}