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How dawn turned into dusk: Scoping and closing possible nuclear futures after the Cold War

Pelopidas, Benoît ; Taha, Hebatalla LU and Tom, Vaughan (2026) In Journal of Strategic Studies 49(3). p.440-462
Abstract
How was the scope of nuclear weapons policy change immediately after the Cold War determined? Nuclear learning and worst-case thinking are common but not satisfactory answers. On the basis of primary sources in multiple languages, we posit that a particular temporalization of nuclear events in the beginning of the 1990s took place: nonproliferation timescaping. The Iraqi case of opaque proliferation was treated as the harbinger of future nuclear danger, while the breakup of the nuclear-armed USSR was depicted as not repeatable or not to worry about, and South African nuclear disarmament was reframed as a non-proliferation success.
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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Nuclear disarmament, nuclear proliferation, South Africa, Iraq, futures
in
Journal of Strategic Studies
volume
49
issue
3
pages
440 - 462
publisher
Routledge
external identifiers
  • scopus:85181240472
ISSN
0140-2390
DOI
10.1080/01402390.2023.2290441
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d12f83aa-0566-4e6b-8731-fc6428e13968
date added to LUP
2024-01-09 22:27:17
date last changed
2026-06-10 09:11:47
@article{d12f83aa-0566-4e6b-8731-fc6428e13968,
  abstract     = {{How was the scope of nuclear weapons policy change immediately after the Cold War determined? Nuclear learning and worst-case thinking are common but not satisfactory answers. On the basis of primary sources in multiple languages, we posit that a particular temporalization of nuclear events in the beginning of the 1990s took place: nonproliferation timescaping. The Iraqi case of opaque proliferation was treated as the harbinger of future nuclear danger, while the breakup of the nuclear-armed USSR was depicted as not repeatable or not to worry about, and South African nuclear disarmament was reframed as a non-proliferation success.<br/>}},
  author       = {{Pelopidas, Benoît and Taha, Hebatalla and Tom, Vaughan}},
  issn         = {{0140-2390}},
  keywords     = {{Nuclear disarmament; nuclear proliferation; South Africa; Iraq; futures}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3}},
  pages        = {{440--462}},
  publisher    = {{Routledge}},
  series       = {{Journal of Strategic Studies}},
  title        = {{How dawn turned into dusk: Scoping and closing possible nuclear futures after the Cold War}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2023.2290441}},
  doi          = {{10.1080/01402390.2023.2290441}},
  volume       = {{49}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}