On inspection planning in the face of epistemic uncertainty in structural performance
(2027) In Reliability Engineering and System Safety 277.- Abstract
The presence of epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic modeling of structural performance implies that not only one but a multitude of possible models should be considered. When such models are utilized in the context of reliability and risk analysis, this does not pose any particular problem. In fact, epistemic and aleatory uncertainties may be treated without differentiation. However, in the context of decision analysis, different outcomes of epistemic uncertainties are generally nonlinearly related to corresponding optimal decisions. This is particularly evident in risk- and reliability-informed inspection planning for dynamically sensitive structures, such as offshore wind turbine foundations. In the present contribution, we take... (More)
The presence of epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic modeling of structural performance implies that not only one but a multitude of possible models should be considered. When such models are utilized in the context of reliability and risk analysis, this does not pose any particular problem. In fact, epistemic and aleatory uncertainties may be treated without differentiation. However, in the context of decision analysis, different outcomes of epistemic uncertainties are generally nonlinearly related to corresponding optimal decisions. This is particularly evident in risk- and reliability-informed inspection planning for dynamically sensitive structures, such as offshore wind turbine foundations. In the present contribution, we take up this challenge by explicitly accounting for the influence of multiple systems, i.e., different models associated with structural performance arising from epistemic uncertainty. To this end, we first propose to adapt and utilize a multi-system decision-making framework developed previously by the authors. Thereafter, we illustrate how this may be used in practice in the context of inspection planning of welded connections in offshore structures. We compare the results with traditional approaches and finally discuss the findings and implications.
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- author
- Zhang, Wei Heng LU ; Bull, Thomas ; Wagner, Paul Remo ; Muff, Daniel V. ; Schubert, Matthias ; Riber, Hans Jørgen and Faber, Michael Havbro
- organization
- publishing date
- 2027-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Competing systems, Consistent information treatment, Epistemic uncertainty, Inspection planning
- in
- Reliability Engineering and System Safety
- volume
- 277
- article number
- 113010
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105041618219
- ISSN
- 0951-8320
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ress.2026.113010
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- d22a9393-2cc7-481b-a4f3-d846b2ba3566
- date added to LUP
- 2026-07-02 09:25:55
- date last changed
- 2026-07-02 09:26:01
@article{d22a9393-2cc7-481b-a4f3-d846b2ba3566,
abstract = {{<p>The presence of epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic modeling of structural performance implies that not only one but a multitude of possible models should be considered. When such models are utilized in the context of reliability and risk analysis, this does not pose any particular problem. In fact, epistemic and aleatory uncertainties may be treated without differentiation. However, in the context of decision analysis, different outcomes of epistemic uncertainties are generally nonlinearly related to corresponding optimal decisions. This is particularly evident in risk- and reliability-informed inspection planning for dynamically sensitive structures, such as offshore wind turbine foundations. In the present contribution, we take up this challenge by explicitly accounting for the influence of multiple systems, i.e., different models associated with structural performance arising from epistemic uncertainty. To this end, we first propose to adapt and utilize a multi-system decision-making framework developed previously by the authors. Thereafter, we illustrate how this may be used in practice in the context of inspection planning of welded connections in offshore structures. We compare the results with traditional approaches and finally discuss the findings and implications.</p>}},
author = {{Zhang, Wei Heng and Bull, Thomas and Wagner, Paul Remo and Muff, Daniel V. and Schubert, Matthias and Riber, Hans Jørgen and Faber, Michael Havbro}},
issn = {{0951-8320}},
keywords = {{Competing systems; Consistent information treatment; Epistemic uncertainty; Inspection planning}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Reliability Engineering and System Safety}},
title = {{On inspection planning in the face of epistemic uncertainty in structural performance}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.113010}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.ress.2026.113010}},
volume = {{277}},
year = {{2027}},
}