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Validation of the prediction model for success of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery at the university hospital in Barcelona

Baranov, Anton LU ; Gratacós, Eduard; Vikhareva, Olga LU and Figueras, Francesc (2017) In Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine 30(24). p.2998-3003
Abstract

Objective: To validate the prediction model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on variables easily obtainable at the first antenatal visit, in a Spanish population. Methods: Retrospective observational study. Women with a single live fetus in cephalic presentation with one previous low-transverse CD who underwent trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) at ≥37 gestational weeks between January 2011 and December 2015 were identified in the hospital’s information system. Their antenatal medical records and delivery summary reports were reviewed and individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated, according to a previously published model. These probabilities were categorized into deciles.... (More)

Objective: To validate the prediction model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on variables easily obtainable at the first antenatal visit, in a Spanish population. Methods: Retrospective observational study. Women with a single live fetus in cephalic presentation with one previous low-transverse CD who underwent trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) at ≥37 gestational weeks between January 2011 and December 2015 were identified in the hospital’s information system. Their antenatal medical records and delivery summary reports were reviewed and individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated, according to a previously published model. These probabilities were categorized into deciles. For calibration, each decile of predicted probabilities was compared to the observed rates. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: In total, 630 women who underwent TOLAC had all required information and were included in the study. Among them, 450 (71.4%) women had successful VBAC. The AUC was 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.66–0.74). Conclusion: Prediction ability of the validated model was in agreement with the original study.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Cesarean delivery, prediction model, vaginal birth after cesarean delivery
in
Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine
volume
30
issue
24
pages
2998 - 3003
publisher
Taylor & Francis
external identifiers
  • scopus:85008315571
  • wos:000413768700019
ISSN
1476-7058
DOI
10.1080/14767058.2016.1271407
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d3295658-86ea-424e-9704-6b3004ac079c
date added to LUP
2017-01-23 11:58:19
date last changed
2018-01-16 13:22:52
@article{d3295658-86ea-424e-9704-6b3004ac079c,
  abstract     = {<p>Objective: To validate the prediction model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on variables easily obtainable at the first antenatal visit, in a Spanish population. Methods: Retrospective observational study. Women with a single live fetus in cephalic presentation with one previous low-transverse CD who underwent trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) at ≥37 gestational weeks between January 2011 and December 2015 were identified in the hospital’s information system. Their antenatal medical records and delivery summary reports were reviewed and individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated, according to a previously published model. These probabilities were categorized into deciles. For calibration, each decile of predicted probabilities was compared to the observed rates. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: In total, 630 women who underwent TOLAC had all required information and were included in the study. Among them, 450 (71.4%) women had successful VBAC. The AUC was 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.66–0.74). Conclusion: Prediction ability of the validated model was in agreement with the original study.</p>},
  author       = {Baranov, Anton and Gratacós, Eduard and Vikhareva, Olga and Figueras, Francesc},
  issn         = {1476-7058},
  keyword      = {Cesarean delivery,prediction model,vaginal birth after cesarean delivery},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {01},
  number       = {24},
  pages        = {2998--3003},
  publisher    = {Taylor & Francis},
  series       = {Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine},
  title        = {Validation of the prediction model for success of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery at the university hospital in Barcelona},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14767058.2016.1271407},
  volume       = {30},
  year         = {2017},
}