A climate risk analysis of Earth's forests in the 21st century
(2022) In Science (New York, N.Y.) 377(6610). p.1099-1103- Abstract
Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks to conduct a synthetic climate risk analysis for Earth's forests in the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty in most regions we find that some forests are... (More)
Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks to conduct a synthetic climate risk analysis for Earth's forests in the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty in most regions we find that some forests are consistently at higher risk, including southern boreal forests and those in western North America and parts of the Amazon.
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- author
- Anderegg, William R L ; Wu, Chao ; Acil, Nezha ; Carvalhais, Nuno ; Pugh, Thomas A M LU ; Sadler, Jon P and Seidl, Rupert
- organization
- publishing date
- 2022-09-02
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Biodiversity, Carbon, Carbon Sequestration, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Forests, Risk Assessment, Trees
- in
- Science (New York, N.Y.)
- volume
- 377
- issue
- 6610
- article number
- eabp9723
- pages
- 5 pages
- publisher
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:36048937
- scopus:85137086233
- ISSN
- 1095-9203
- DOI
- 10.1126/science.abp9723
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- d364e91d-8bcc-43ab-ac28-43aa6d2e7bbc
- date added to LUP
- 2022-09-28 12:11:49
- date last changed
- 2024-06-14 22:27:49
@article{d364e91d-8bcc-43ab-ac28-43aa6d2e7bbc,
abstract = {{<p>Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared. We combine outputs from multiple mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling carbon, biodiversity, and disturbance risks to conduct a synthetic climate risk analysis for Earth's forests in the 21st century. Despite large uncertainty in most regions we find that some forests are consistently at higher risk, including southern boreal forests and those in western North America and parts of the Amazon.</p>}},
author = {{Anderegg, William R L and Wu, Chao and Acil, Nezha and Carvalhais, Nuno and Pugh, Thomas A M and Sadler, Jon P and Seidl, Rupert}},
issn = {{1095-9203}},
keywords = {{Biodiversity; Carbon; Carbon Sequestration; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Forests; Risk Assessment; Trees}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{09}},
number = {{6610}},
pages = {{1099--1103}},
publisher = {{American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}},
series = {{Science (New York, N.Y.)}},
title = {{A climate risk analysis of Earth's forests in the 21st century}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abp9723}},
doi = {{10.1126/science.abp9723}},
volume = {{377}},
year = {{2022}},
}