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Decomposition analysis of per capita emissions : A tool for assessing consumption changes and technology changes within scenarios

van den Berg, Nicole J. ; Hof, Andries F. ; van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar ; Akenji, Lewis ; Daioglou, Vassilis ; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. ; van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. LU orcid ; Timmer, Vanessa J. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. (2021) In Environmental Research Communications 3(1).
Abstract

Recent studies show that behaviour changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. Existing climate change mitigation scenarios primarily focus on technological change and underrepresent the possible contribution of behaviour change. This paper presents and applies a methodology to decompose the factors contributing to changes in per capita emissions in scenarios. With this approach, we determine the relative contribution to total emissions from changes in activity, the way activities are carried out, the intensity of activities, as well as fuel choice. The decomposition tool breaks down per capita emissions loosely following the Kaya Identity, allowing a comparison between the contributions of... (More)

Recent studies show that behaviour changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. Existing climate change mitigation scenarios primarily focus on technological change and underrepresent the possible contribution of behaviour change. This paper presents and applies a methodology to decompose the factors contributing to changes in per capita emissions in scenarios. With this approach, we determine the relative contribution to total emissions from changes in activity, the way activities are carried out, the intensity of activities, as well as fuel choice. The decomposition tool breaks down per capita emissions loosely following the Kaya Identity, allowing a comparison between the contributions of technology and consumption changes among regions and between various scenarios. We illustrate the use of the tool by applying it to three previously-published scenarios; a baseline scenario, a scenario with a selection of behaviour changes, and a 2 °C scenario with the same selection of behaviour changes. Within these scenarios, we explore the contribution of technology and consumption changes to total emission changes in the transport and residential sector, for a selection of both developed and developing regions. In doing so, the tool helps identify where specifically (i.e. via consumption or technology factors) different measures play a role in mitigating emissions and expose opportunities for improved representation of behaviour changes in integrated assessment models. This research shows the value of the decomposition tool and how the approach could be flexibly replicated for different global models based on available variables and aims. The application of the tool to previously-published scenarios shows substantial differences in consumption and technology changes from CO2 price and behaviour changes, in transport and residential per capita emissions and between developing and developed regions. Furthermore, the tool’s application can highlight opportunities for future scenario development of a more nuanced and heterogeneous representation of behaviour and lifestyle changes in global models.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Behaviour, Behaviour changes, Consumption patterns, Decomposition analysis, Scenario analysis
in
Environmental Research Communications
volume
3
issue
1
article number
015004
publisher
IOP Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:85107382866
ISSN
2515-7620
DOI
10.1088/2515-7620/abdd99
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d5e2d6ad-21cf-4024-99af-2ba7f7d486e3
date added to LUP
2021-07-12 12:26:24
date last changed
2022-04-27 02:47:30
@article{d5e2d6ad-21cf-4024-99af-2ba7f7d486e3,
  abstract     = {{<p>Recent studies show that behaviour changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. Existing climate change mitigation scenarios primarily focus on technological change and underrepresent the possible contribution of behaviour change. This paper presents and applies a methodology to decompose the factors contributing to changes in per capita emissions in scenarios. With this approach, we determine the relative contribution to total emissions from changes in activity, the way activities are carried out, the intensity of activities, as well as fuel choice. The decomposition tool breaks down per capita emissions loosely following the Kaya Identity, allowing a comparison between the contributions of technology and consumption changes among regions and between various scenarios. We illustrate the use of the tool by applying it to three previously-published scenarios; a baseline scenario, a scenario with a selection of behaviour changes, and a 2 °C scenario with the same selection of behaviour changes. Within these scenarios, we explore the contribution of technology and consumption changes to total emission changes in the transport and residential sector, for a selection of both developed and developing regions. In doing so, the tool helps identify where specifically (i.e. via consumption or technology factors) different measures play a role in mitigating emissions and expose opportunities for improved representation of behaviour changes in integrated assessment models. This research shows the value of the decomposition tool and how the approach could be flexibly replicated for different global models based on available variables and aims. The application of the tool to previously-published scenarios shows substantial differences in consumption and technology changes from CO<sub>2</sub> price and behaviour changes, in transport and residential per capita emissions and between developing and developed regions. Furthermore, the tool’s application can highlight opportunities for future scenario development of a more nuanced and heterogeneous representation of behaviour and lifestyle changes in global models.</p>}},
  author       = {{van den Berg, Nicole J. and Hof, Andries F. and van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar and Akenji, Lewis and Daioglou, Vassilis and Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. and van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. and Timmer, Vanessa J. and van Vuuren, Detlef P.}},
  issn         = {{2515-7620}},
  keywords     = {{Behaviour; Behaviour changes; Consumption patterns; Decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{IOP Publishing}},
  series       = {{Environmental Research Communications}},
  title        = {{Decomposition analysis of per capita emissions : A tool for assessing consumption changes and technology changes within scenarios}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abdd99}},
  doi          = {{10.1088/2515-7620/abdd99}},
  volume       = {{3}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}