Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios

Mo, Yunhua ; Chen, Shouzhi ; Wu, Zhaofei ; Tang, Jing LU orcid and Fu, Yongshuo (2024) In Earth's Future 12(3).
Abstract

Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation phenology models that included chilling, forcing, and the photoperiod. Based on scenario data from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) derived from eight climate models, future vegetation phenology was predicted using the phenology models. Results showed that all the phenology models performed better than the... (More)

Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation phenology models that included chilling, forcing, and the photoperiod. Based on scenario data from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) derived from eight climate models, future vegetation phenology was predicted using the phenology models. Results showed that all the phenology models performed better than the NULL model (mean of the SOS), with the performance of one-phase models broadly matching that of two-phase models, although the best models varied by vegetation type. The spatial pattern of simulated SOS was similar among the models, and it explained >75% of the variation. Based on the mean predicted SOS, we found that spring vegetation phenology will continue to advance under strong warming conditions (SSP245 and SSP585), but that the trend of advance will reverse at around 2060 under the SSP126 scenario. The continued trend in SOS advance is likely related to rapid forcing fulfillment under stronger warming conditions. However, under moderate warming, chilling might be reduced and it might require longer to compensate for higher forcing, which ultimately would result in SOS delay. Our findings highlight that trends will likely change under different warming conditions, potentially causing widespread impact on species interaction, biodiversity, and ecosystem function.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
climate change, phenology model, reversed trend, spring phenology, temporal changes
in
Earth's Future
volume
12
issue
3
article number
e2023EF003788
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • scopus:85186395942
ISSN
2328-4277
DOI
10.1029/2023EF003788
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d6746620-9d42-44c0-9391-c450bedab8c2
date added to LUP
2024-03-27 15:49:01
date last changed
2024-03-27 15:49:01
@article{d6746620-9d42-44c0-9391-c450bedab8c2,
  abstract     = {{<p>Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation phenology models that included chilling, forcing, and the photoperiod. Based on scenario data from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) derived from eight climate models, future vegetation phenology was predicted using the phenology models. Results showed that all the phenology models performed better than the NULL model (mean of the SOS), with the performance of one-phase models broadly matching that of two-phase models, although the best models varied by vegetation type. The spatial pattern of simulated SOS was similar among the models, and it explained &gt;75% of the variation. Based on the mean predicted SOS, we found that spring vegetation phenology will continue to advance under strong warming conditions (SSP245 and SSP585), but that the trend of advance will reverse at around 2060 under the SSP126 scenario. The continued trend in SOS advance is likely related to rapid forcing fulfillment under stronger warming conditions. However, under moderate warming, chilling might be reduced and it might require longer to compensate for higher forcing, which ultimately would result in SOS delay. Our findings highlight that trends will likely change under different warming conditions, potentially causing widespread impact on species interaction, biodiversity, and ecosystem function.</p>}},
  author       = {{Mo, Yunhua and Chen, Shouzhi and Wu, Zhaofei and Tang, Jing and Fu, Yongshuo}},
  issn         = {{2328-4277}},
  keywords     = {{climate change; phenology model; reversed trend; spring phenology; temporal changes}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Earth's Future}},
  title        = {{The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003788}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2023EF003788}},
  volume       = {{12}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}