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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison

Prestele, Reinhard ; Alexander, Peter ; Rounsevell, Mark D A ; Arneth, Almut LU ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Eitelberg, David A. ; Engström, Kerstin LU ; Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko , et al. (2016) In Global Change Biology 22(12). p.3967-3983
Abstract

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on... (More)

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
land-use allocation, land-use change, land-use model uncertainty, map comparison, model intercomparison, model variation
in
Global Change Biology
volume
22
issue
12
pages
17 pages
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • pmid:27135635
  • wos:000387813300013
  • scopus:84995593480
ISSN
1354-1013
DOI
10.1111/gcb.13337
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d74f3cc0-a1c0-468e-8acf-044b2e07a29d
date added to LUP
2016-12-07 08:32:37
date last changed
2024-04-19 14:16:30
@article{d74f3cc0-a1c0-468e-8acf-044b2e07a29d,
  abstract     = {{<p>Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.</p>}},
  author       = {{Prestele, Reinhard and Alexander, Peter and Rounsevell, Mark D A and Arneth, Almut and Calvin, Katherine and Doelman, Jonathan and Eitelberg, David A. and Engström, Kerstin and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Jain, Atul K. and Krisztin, Tamás and Kyle, Page and Meiyappan, Prasanth and Popp, Alexander and Sands, Ronald D. and Schaldach, Rüdiger and Schüngel, Jan and Stehfest, Elke and Tabeau, Andrzej and Van Meijl, Hans and Van Vliet, Jasper and Verburg, Peter H.}},
  issn         = {{1354-1013}},
  keywords     = {{land-use allocation; land-use change; land-use model uncertainty; map comparison; model intercomparison; model variation}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{12}},
  number       = {{12}},
  pages        = {{3967--3983}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
  series       = {{Global Change Biology}},
  title        = {{Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/gcb.13337}},
  volume       = {{22}},
  year         = {{2016}},
}