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Med P:n som i programpaket. Om datatortyr och signifikansfiskeri

Taube, Adam and Högberg, Thomas LU (2002) In Läkartidningen 99(34). p.5-3302
Abstract

For the study of prognostic factors, the medical researchers have access to a number of advanced statistical techniques available in standard program packages. A tradition has developed where survival or time to relapse is analysed on the basis of statistical materials with few patients but a large number of possible explanatory variables. In statistical "fishing expeditions" the p-values are used to sort out potentially useful prognostic variables. Since the number of observations is small, all relevant prognostic factors do not give statistical significance. Since a large number of variables are tested there is a considerable risk for spurious significances. It is not enough to show that a prognostic factor seems to be efficient in... (More)

For the study of prognostic factors, the medical researchers have access to a number of advanced statistical techniques available in standard program packages. A tradition has developed where survival or time to relapse is analysed on the basis of statistical materials with few patients but a large number of possible explanatory variables. In statistical "fishing expeditions" the p-values are used to sort out potentially useful prognostic variables. Since the number of observations is small, all relevant prognostic factors do not give statistical significance. Since a large number of variables are tested there is a considerable risk for spurious significances. It is not enough to show that a prognostic factor seems to be efficient in the patient group where it was first found. The result must be verified in further studies of independent groups of similar patients.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
and
alternative title
"P" as in Program Package. About torturing data and significant "fishing expeditions"
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
keywords
Confidence Intervals, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Reproducibility of Results, Statistics as Topic
in
Läkartidningen
volume
99
issue
34
pages
4 pages
publisher
Swedish Medical Association
external identifiers
  • pmid:12362849
  • scopus:0037158811
ISSN
0023-7205
language
Swedish
LU publication?
no
id
d9ab969f-fc79-41ea-bebd-64f720ad6a6d
alternative location
http://www.lakartidningen.se/OldArticlePdf/#!/2002/25243
date added to LUP
2019-09-20 07:55:03
date last changed
2024-01-01 20:54:31
@article{d9ab969f-fc79-41ea-bebd-64f720ad6a6d,
  abstract     = {{<p>For the study of prognostic factors, the medical researchers have access to a number of advanced statistical techniques available in standard program packages. A tradition has developed where survival or time to relapse is analysed on the basis of statistical materials with few patients but a large number of possible explanatory variables. In statistical "fishing expeditions" the p-values are used to sort out potentially useful prognostic variables. Since the number of observations is small, all relevant prognostic factors do not give statistical significance. Since a large number of variables are tested there is a considerable risk for spurious significances. It is not enough to show that a prognostic factor seems to be efficient in the patient group where it was first found. The result must be verified in further studies of independent groups of similar patients.</p>}},
  author       = {{Taube, Adam and Högberg, Thomas}},
  issn         = {{0023-7205}},
  keywords     = {{Confidence Intervals; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Humans; Predictive Value of Tests; Prognosis; Reproducibility of Results; Statistics as Topic}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  month        = {{08}},
  number       = {{34}},
  pages        = {{5--3302}},
  publisher    = {{Swedish Medical Association}},
  series       = {{Läkartidningen}},
  title        = {{Med P:n som i programpaket. Om datatortyr och signifikansfiskeri}},
  url          = {{http://www.lakartidningen.se/OldArticlePdf/#!/2002/25243}},
  volume       = {{99}},
  year         = {{2002}},
}