Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree
(2019) In Global Change Biology 25(12). p.4339-4351- Abstract
Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that... (More)
Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.
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- author
- Wilson, Oliver J ; Walters, Richard J LU ; Mayle, Francis E ; Lingner, Débora V and Vibrans, Alexander C
- organization
- publishing date
- 2019-12
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Biodiversity, Brazil, Climate Change, Conservation of Natural Resources, Forests, Trees
- in
- Global Change Biology
- volume
- 25
- issue
- 12
- pages
- 4339 - 4351
- publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85070313101
- pmid:31301686
- ISSN
- 1354-1013
- DOI
- 10.1111/gcb.14755
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
- id
- daa59676-09b1-4e92-9bf4-f3ba42224f52
- date added to LUP
- 2021-02-11 16:17:42
- date last changed
- 2024-08-09 12:45:15
@article{daa59676-09b1-4e92-9bf4-f3ba42224f52,
abstract = {{<p>Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.</p>}},
author = {{Wilson, Oliver J and Walters, Richard J and Mayle, Francis E and Lingner, Débora V and Vibrans, Alexander C}},
issn = {{1354-1013}},
keywords = {{Biodiversity; Brazil; Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources; Forests; Trees}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{12}},
pages = {{4339--4351}},
publisher = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
series = {{Global Change Biology}},
title = {{Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14755}},
doi = {{10.1111/gcb.14755}},
volume = {{25}},
year = {{2019}},
}