Do Oil Prices Predict Economic Growth? New Global Evidence
(2014) In Energy Economics 41(January). p.137-146- Abstract
- In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4588879
- author
- Narayan, Paresh ; Sharma, Susan ; Poon, Wai Ching and Westerlund, Joakim LU
- publishing date
- 2014
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Economic growth, Predictability, Oil price
- in
- Energy Economics
- volume
- 41
- issue
- January
- pages
- 137 - 146
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:84890136644
- ISSN
- 0140-9883
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.003
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- db327a69-4b46-4965-9ca9-776c2f19235a (old id 4588879)
- alternative location
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002478
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 10:41:16
- date last changed
- 2022-04-20 05:02:06
@article{db327a69-4b46-4965-9ca9-776c2f19235a, abstract = {{In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.}}, author = {{Narayan, Paresh and Sharma, Susan and Poon, Wai Ching and Westerlund, Joakim}}, issn = {{0140-9883}}, keywords = {{Economic growth; Predictability; Oil price}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{January}}, pages = {{137--146}}, publisher = {{Elsevier}}, series = {{Energy Economics}}, title = {{Do Oil Prices Predict Economic Growth? New Global Evidence}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.003}}, doi = {{10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.003}}, volume = {{41}}, year = {{2014}}, }