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High-resolution inverse modelling of European CH4emissions using the novel FLEXPART-COSMO TM5 4DVAR inverse modelling system

Bergamaschi, Peter ; Segers, Arjo ; Brunner, Dominik LU ; Haussaire, Jean Matthieu ; Henne, Stephan ; Ramonet, Michel ; Arnold, Tim ; Biermann, Tobias LU orcid ; Chen, Huilin and Conil, Sebastien , et al. (2022) In Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22(20). p.13243-13268
Abstract

We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system ("FLEXVAR") based on FLEXPARTCOSMO back trajectories driven by COSMO meteorological fields at 7 km×7 km resolution over the European COSMO-7 domain and the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique. FLEXVAR is coupled offline with the global inverse modelling system TM5-4DVAR to provide background mole fractions ("baselines") consistent with the global observations assimilated in TM5-4DVAR. We have applied the FLEXVAR system for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018 using 24 stations with in situ measurements, complemented with data from five stations with discrete air sampling (and additional stations outside the European COSMO-7 domain... (More)

We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system ("FLEXVAR") based on FLEXPARTCOSMO back trajectories driven by COSMO meteorological fields at 7 km×7 km resolution over the European COSMO-7 domain and the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique. FLEXVAR is coupled offline with the global inverse modelling system TM5-4DVAR to provide background mole fractions ("baselines") consistent with the global observations assimilated in TM5-4DVAR. We have applied the FLEXVAR system for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018 using 24 stations with in situ measurements, complemented with data from five stations with discrete air sampling (and additional stations outside the European COSMO-7 domain used for the global TM5-4DVAR inversions). The sensitivity of the FLEXVAR inversions to different approaches to calculate the baselines, different parameterizations of the model representation error, different settings of the prior error covariance parameters, different prior inventories, and different observation data sets are investigated in detail. Furthermore, the FLEXVAR inversions are compared to inversions with the FLEXPART extended Kalman filter ("FLExKF") system and with TM5-4DVAR inversions at 1° × 1° resolution over Europe. The three inverse modelling systems show overall good consistency of the major spatial patterns of the derived inversion increments and in general only relatively small differences in the derived annual total emissions of larger country regions. At the same time, the FLEXVAR inversions at 7 km × 7 km resolution allow the observations to be better reproduced than the TM5-4DVAR simulations at 1° × 1°. The three inverse models derive higher annual total CH4 emissions in 2018 for Germany, France, and BENELUX compared to the sum of anthropogenic emissions reported to UNFCCC and natural emissions estimated from the Global Carbon Project CH4 inventory, but the uncertainty ranges of top-down and bottom-up total emission estimates overlap for all three country regions. In contrast, the top-down estimates for the sum of emissions from the UK and Ireland agree relatively well with the total of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Methane, inverse modelling
in
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
volume
22
issue
20
pages
26 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:85141946312
ISSN
1680-7316
DOI
10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Funding Information: The VERIFY project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement no. 776810. We are grateful to ECMWF for providing computing resources under the special projects “Improve European and global CH and NO flux inversions (2018–2020)” and “Extend and improve CH flux inversions at global and European scale (2021)”. Furthermore, we thank Bradley Matthews for the compilation of uncertainties of emissions reported to UNFCCC by EU member states. ICOS Switzerland was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation, in-house contributions, and the State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation. Funding Information: This research has been supported by Horizon 2020 (grant no. VERIFY (776810)). Publisher Copyright: © Copyright:
id
dc28797c-aba0-4c4e-9fbf-1e5d34619024
date added to LUP
2022-11-28 10:58:43
date last changed
2023-03-14 13:59:23
@article{dc28797c-aba0-4c4e-9fbf-1e5d34619024,
  abstract     = {{<p>We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system ("FLEXVAR") based on FLEXPARTCOSMO back trajectories driven by COSMO meteorological fields at 7 km×7 km resolution over the European COSMO-7 domain and the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique. FLEXVAR is coupled offline with the global inverse modelling system TM5-4DVAR to provide background mole fractions ("baselines") consistent with the global observations assimilated in TM5-4DVAR. We have applied the FLEXVAR system for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018 using 24 stations with in situ measurements, complemented with data from five stations with discrete air sampling (and additional stations outside the European COSMO-7 domain used for the global TM5-4DVAR inversions). The sensitivity of the FLEXVAR inversions to different approaches to calculate the baselines, different parameterizations of the model representation error, different settings of the prior error covariance parameters, different prior inventories, and different observation data sets are investigated in detail. Furthermore, the FLEXVAR inversions are compared to inversions with the FLEXPART extended Kalman filter ("FLExKF") system and with TM5-4DVAR inversions at 1° × 1° resolution over Europe. The three inverse modelling systems show overall good consistency of the major spatial patterns of the derived inversion increments and in general only relatively small differences in the derived annual total emissions of larger country regions. At the same time, the FLEXVAR inversions at 7 km × 7 km resolution allow the observations to be better reproduced than the TM5-4DVAR simulations at 1° × 1°. The three inverse models derive higher annual total CH4 emissions in 2018 for Germany, France, and BENELUX compared to the sum of anthropogenic emissions reported to UNFCCC and natural emissions estimated from the Global Carbon Project CH4 inventory, but the uncertainty ranges of top-down and bottom-up total emission estimates overlap for all three country regions. In contrast, the top-down estimates for the sum of emissions from the UK and Ireland agree relatively well with the total of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories.</p>}},
  author       = {{Bergamaschi, Peter and Segers, Arjo and Brunner, Dominik and Haussaire, Jean Matthieu and Henne, Stephan and Ramonet, Michel and Arnold, Tim and Biermann, Tobias and Chen, Huilin and Conil, Sebastien and Delmotte, Marc and Forster, Grant and Frumau, Arnoud and Kubistin, Dagmar and Lan, Xin and Leuenberger, Markus and Lindauer, Matthias and Lopez, Morgan and Manca, Giovanni and Müller-Williams, Jennifer and O'Doherty, Simon and Scheeren, Bert and Steinbacher, Martin and Trisolino, Pamela and Vítková, Gabriela and Yver Kwok, Camille}},
  issn         = {{1680-7316}},
  keywords     = {{Methane; inverse modelling}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{10}},
  number       = {{20}},
  pages        = {{13243--13268}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics}},
  title        = {{High-resolution inverse modelling of European CH<sub>4</sub>emissions using the novel FLEXPART-COSMO TM5 4DVAR inverse modelling system}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022}},
  volume       = {{22}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}