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Assessment of water fluxes under the dual threat of changes in land cover and climate variability in the Brazilian Cerrado biome

Schwamback, Dimaghi LU orcid ; Amorim Brandão, Abderraman R. ; Berndtsson, Ronny LU orcid ; Wendland, Edson and Persson, Magnus LU (2025) In Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 61.
Abstract

Study region: The Brazilian wooded Cerrado biome is a tropical savanna, over 50 % of which has been converted to agricultural land. Study focus: We evaluated changes in water balance variables (surface flux, evaporation, soil-water storage, infiltration, groundwater recharge, and root uptake) due to climate change. The study included (i) calibration and validation of the Hydrus model through observations of soil moisture in experimental plots covered with sugarcane and pasture compared to natural forest during six years and (ii) hydrological predictions by combining Hydrus with projections from climate models (10 CMIP6 models under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios). New hydrological insights for the region: We tested different parameter... (More)

Study region: The Brazilian wooded Cerrado biome is a tropical savanna, over 50 % of which has been converted to agricultural land. Study focus: We evaluated changes in water balance variables (surface flux, evaporation, soil-water storage, infiltration, groundwater recharge, and root uptake) due to climate change. The study included (i) calibration and validation of the Hydrus model through observations of soil moisture in experimental plots covered with sugarcane and pasture compared to natural forest during six years and (ii) hydrological predictions by combining Hydrus with projections from climate models (10 CMIP6 models under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios). New hydrological insights for the region: We tested different parameter combinations during calibration and found that for sugarcane and pasture, saturated soil water content, parameter N in the soil retention function, and saturated hydraulic conductivity were the most sensitive ones to improve calibration. The validated models demonstrated good performance, with a mass balance error of less than 0.9 %. The results indicate that climate change will affect certain water fluxes more than others, in a hierarchical (bottom-top) sequence: soil-water storage, bottom flux, infiltration, surface flux, evaporation, and root uptake. For example, root uptake is expected to increase by 26 % in sugarcane and pasture crops at the end of 2100, pressuring water regional demand. Lastly, land cover change currently poses a greater risk to water fluxes than projected climate change.

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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Agriculture, Climate change, Hydrus, Land cover and land use
in
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
volume
61
article number
102699
pages
16 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:105012606778
ISSN
2214-5818
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102699
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Authors
id
dc9a21db-cc79-4239-b655-e35c03e2f09a
date added to LUP
2025-08-21 17:15:24
date last changed
2025-10-14 12:35:10
@article{dc9a21db-cc79-4239-b655-e35c03e2f09a,
  abstract     = {{<p>Study region: The Brazilian wooded Cerrado biome is a tropical savanna, over 50 % of which has been converted to agricultural land. Study focus: We evaluated changes in water balance variables (surface flux, evaporation, soil-water storage, infiltration, groundwater recharge, and root uptake) due to climate change. The study included (i) calibration and validation of the Hydrus model through observations of soil moisture in experimental plots covered with sugarcane and pasture compared to natural forest during six years and (ii) hydrological predictions by combining Hydrus with projections from climate models (10 CMIP6 models under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios). New hydrological insights for the region: We tested different parameter combinations during calibration and found that for sugarcane and pasture, saturated soil water content, parameter N in the soil retention function, and saturated hydraulic conductivity were the most sensitive ones to improve calibration. The validated models demonstrated good performance, with a mass balance error of less than 0.9 %. The results indicate that climate change will affect certain water fluxes more than others, in a hierarchical (bottom-top) sequence: soil-water storage, bottom flux, infiltration, surface flux, evaporation, and root uptake. For example, root uptake is expected to increase by 26 % in sugarcane and pasture crops at the end of 2100, pressuring water regional demand. Lastly, land cover change currently poses a greater risk to water fluxes than projected climate change.</p>}},
  author       = {{Schwamback, Dimaghi and Amorim Brandão, Abderraman R. and Berndtsson, Ronny and Wendland, Edson and Persson, Magnus}},
  issn         = {{2214-5818}},
  keywords     = {{Agriculture; Climate change; Hydrus; Land cover and land use}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}},
  title        = {{Assessment of water fluxes under the dual threat of changes in land cover and climate variability in the Brazilian Cerrado biome}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102699}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102699}},
  volume       = {{61}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}