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All-cause mortality after ERCP

Kalaitzakis, Evangelos LU (2016) In Endoscopy 48(11). p.987-994
Abstract

Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP... (More)

Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5?% at 30 days and increased to 11.9?% at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic?=?0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥?85 years vs.?

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Endoscopy
volume
48
issue
11
pages
987 - 994
publisher
Thieme
external identifiers
  • scopus:84981216989
ISSN
0013-726X
DOI
10.1055/s-0042-111319
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dd3f991a-3325-436d-957b-c583d4ae4c0c
date added to LUP
2016-09-02 15:06:58
date last changed
2017-01-02 14:21:32
@article{dd3f991a-3325-436d-957b-c583d4ae4c0c,
  abstract     = {<p> Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5?% at 30 days and increased to 11.9?% at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic?=?0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥?85 years vs.?</p>},
  author       = {Kalaitzakis, Evangelos},
  issn         = {0013-726X},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {06},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {987--994},
  publisher    = {Thieme},
  series       = {Endoscopy},
  title        = {All-cause mortality after ERCP},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0042-111319},
  volume       = {48},
  year         = {2016},
}