All-cause mortality after ERCP
(2016) In Endoscopy 48(11). p.987-994- Abstract
Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP... (More)
Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5?% at 30 days and increased to 11.9?% at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic?=?0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥?85 years vs.?
(Less)
- author
- Kalaitzakis, Evangelos LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2016-06-06
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Endoscopy
- volume
- 48
- issue
- 11
- pages
- 987 - 994
- publisher
- Georg Thieme Verlag
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:84981216989
- pmid:27494454
- wos:000393559400005
- ISSN
- 0013-726X
- DOI
- 10.1055/s-0042-111319
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- dd3f991a-3325-436d-957b-c583d4ae4c0c
- date added to LUP
- 2016-09-02 15:06:58
- date last changed
- 2025-01-12 10:49:56
@article{dd3f991a-3325-436d-957b-c583d4ae4c0c, abstract = {{<p> Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n?=?16?478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5?% at 30 days and increased to 11.9?% at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic?=?0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥?85 years vs.?</p>}}, author = {{Kalaitzakis, Evangelos}}, issn = {{0013-726X}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{06}}, number = {{11}}, pages = {{987--994}}, publisher = {{Georg Thieme Verlag}}, series = {{Endoscopy}}, title = {{All-cause mortality after ERCP}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0042-111319}}, doi = {{10.1055/s-0042-111319}}, volume = {{48}}, year = {{2016}}, }