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Assessing the potential transition of Lake Titicaca to a terminal lake

Pillco Zolá, Ramiro LU ; Bengtsson, Lars LU ; Martí-Cardona, Belen ; Uscamayta-Ferrano, Elvis ; Calle, Juan ; Berndtsson, Ronny LU orcid and Toledo, Osmar Cuentas (2026) In Frontiers in Water 8.
Abstract

Lake Titicaca in South America is highly sensitive to climatic variability, making it particularly vulnerable to climate change and raising concerns about long-term drying. Fluctuations in lake-water-levels (LWLs) can trigger cascading impacts across the downstream Titicaca-Desaguadero-Poopó-Salares (TDPS). This study evaluates the dependence of Lake Titicaca’s water level on air temperature and precipitation using a rainfall-runoff model to estimate river inflows, combined with a lake routing model (LRM) to simulate water-level variations. Future projections of LWLs were developed using extreme precipitation and evaporation rates and downscaled climate scenarios, from which temperature trend were incorporated into the LWLs modeling.... (More)

Lake Titicaca in South America is highly sensitive to climatic variability, making it particularly vulnerable to climate change and raising concerns about long-term drying. Fluctuations in lake-water-levels (LWLs) can trigger cascading impacts across the downstream Titicaca-Desaguadero-Poopó-Salares (TDPS). This study evaluates the dependence of Lake Titicaca’s water level on air temperature and precipitation using a rainfall-runoff model to estimate river inflows, combined with a lake routing model (LRM) to simulate water-level variations. Future projections of LWLs were developed using extreme precipitation and evaporation rates and downscaled climate scenarios, from which temperature trend were incorporated into the LWLs modeling. Results suggested that, even with no significant changes in precipitation, a continued increase in evaporation of approximately 3 mm per year associated with rising air temperatures in the whole catchment could cause Lake Titicaca to become a terminal lake by around 2050 and permanently terminal lake after 2085. A decrease in precipitation or further increases in evaporation would likely accelerate this transition due to the reduction in lake surface area. Such changes could have major consequences for the TDPS system and increase the likelihood that Lake Poopó becomes permanently dried-up.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
climate change, lake routing, Lake Titicaca, river inflows, terminal lake
in
Frontiers in Water
volume
8
article number
1781345
publisher
Frontiers Media S. A.
external identifiers
  • scopus:105041106783
ISSN
2624-9375
DOI
10.3389/frwa.2026.1781345
project
The United Nations University Hub: Water in a Changing Environment (WICE)
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2026 Pillco Zolá, Bengtsson, Martí-Cardona, Uscamayta-Ferrano, Calle, Berndtsson and Toledo.
id
ddda63fa-de65-4abb-bb1e-f3886eb1ceb0
date added to LUP
2026-07-03 09:09:53
date last changed
2026-08-10 13:02:25
@article{ddda63fa-de65-4abb-bb1e-f3886eb1ceb0,
  abstract     = {{<p>Lake Titicaca in South America is highly sensitive to climatic variability, making it particularly vulnerable to climate change and raising concerns about long-term drying. Fluctuations in lake-water-levels (LWLs) can trigger cascading impacts across the downstream Titicaca-Desaguadero-Poopó-Salares (TDPS). This study evaluates the dependence of Lake Titicaca’s water level on air temperature and precipitation using a rainfall-runoff model to estimate river inflows, combined with a lake routing model (LRM) to simulate water-level variations. Future projections of LWLs were developed using extreme precipitation and evaporation rates and downscaled climate scenarios, from which temperature trend were incorporated into the LWLs modeling. Results suggested that, even with no significant changes in precipitation, a continued increase in evaporation of approximately 3 mm per year associated with rising air temperatures in the whole catchment could cause Lake Titicaca to become a terminal lake by around 2050 and permanently terminal lake after 2085. A decrease in precipitation or further increases in evaporation would likely accelerate this transition due to the reduction in lake surface area. Such changes could have major consequences for the TDPS system and increase the likelihood that Lake Poopó becomes permanently dried-up.</p>}},
  author       = {{Pillco Zolá, Ramiro and Bengtsson, Lars and Martí-Cardona, Belen and Uscamayta-Ferrano, Elvis and Calle, Juan and Berndtsson, Ronny and Toledo, Osmar Cuentas}},
  issn         = {{2624-9375}},
  keywords     = {{climate change; lake routing; Lake Titicaca; river inflows; terminal lake}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{05}},
  publisher    = {{Frontiers Media S. A.}},
  series       = {{Frontiers in Water}},
  title        = {{Assessing the potential transition of Lake Titicaca to a terminal lake}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2026.1781345}},
  doi          = {{10.3389/frwa.2026.1781345}},
  volume       = {{8}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}