Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Projections of future hydrological drought in a reservoir-regulated region : The roles of climate change and reservoir operation

He, Shaokun LU orcid ; Sun, Sirui ; Liu, Yanghe ; Chen, Kebing ; Zhu, Lingling and Gong, Yu (2026) In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 30(11). p.3529-3547
Abstract

Future hydrological droughts in reservoir-regulated regions remain uncertain due to the complex interactions between climate change and reservoir operation. Existing studies usually rely on simplified empirical representations of historical reservoir operations and rarely consider the role of optimal reservoir operation policies. Here, we used the upper Hanjiang River basin (UHRB) in China as a case study to project its future hydrological drought evolution using standard streamflow indices (i.e., SSI-1, SSI-3, and SSI-12) and to quantify the roles of climate change and reservoir operation. A long short-term memory (LSTM)-based hydrological model, coupled with a physics-informed LSTM reservoir model, was developed and driven by... (More)

Future hydrological droughts in reservoir-regulated regions remain uncertain due to the complex interactions between climate change and reservoir operation. Existing studies usually rely on simplified empirical representations of historical reservoir operations and rarely consider the role of optimal reservoir operation policies. Here, we used the upper Hanjiang River basin (UHRB) in China as a case study to project its future hydrological drought evolution using standard streamflow indices (i.e., SSI-1, SSI-3, and SSI-12) and to quantify the roles of climate change and reservoir operation. A long short-term memory (LSTM)-based hydrological model, coupled with a physics-informed LSTM reservoir model, was developed and driven by bias-corrected climate outputs from five global climate models to project future drought conditions under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that future climate change over the UHRB is projected to reduce natural streamflow and exacerbate hydrological droughts, with the most severe impacts projected in the far-future period (2071-2100) under SSP585. The traditional Ankang Reservoir operation reduces the frequency, duration and severity of short-term hydrological droughts (SSI-1 and SSI-3) under all scenarios, but shows limited effectiveness for long-term droughts (SSI-12). Importantly, optimal reservoir operating policies that aim to maximize hydropower generation and power generation guarantee rate reveal clear trade-offs between hydrological drought risk and hydropower benefits, thereby underscoring the importance of enhancing reservoir operation strategies for future drought management in reservoir-regulated basins.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
volume
30
issue
11
pages
19 pages
publisher
European Geophysical Society
external identifiers
  • scopus:105042186992
ISSN
1027-5606
DOI
10.5194/hess-30-3529-2026
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
de18230b-f18e-4e26-83a2-739d1fca4bd5
date added to LUP
2026-07-02 13:52:16
date last changed
2026-07-02 13:53:18
@article{de18230b-f18e-4e26-83a2-739d1fca4bd5,
  abstract     = {{<p>Future hydrological droughts in reservoir-regulated regions remain uncertain due to the complex interactions between climate change and reservoir operation. Existing studies usually rely on simplified empirical representations of historical reservoir operations and rarely consider the role of optimal reservoir operation policies. Here, we used the upper Hanjiang River basin (UHRB) in China as a case study to project its future hydrological drought evolution using standard streamflow indices (i.e., SSI-1, SSI-3, and SSI-12) and to quantify the roles of climate change and reservoir operation. A long short-term memory (LSTM)-based hydrological model, coupled with a physics-informed LSTM reservoir model, was developed and driven by bias-corrected climate outputs from five global climate models to project future drought conditions under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that future climate change over the UHRB is projected to reduce natural streamflow and exacerbate hydrological droughts, with the most severe impacts projected in the far-future period (2071-2100) under SSP585. The traditional Ankang Reservoir operation reduces the frequency, duration and severity of short-term hydrological droughts (SSI-1 and SSI-3) under all scenarios, but shows limited effectiveness for long-term droughts (SSI-12). Importantly, optimal reservoir operating policies that aim to maximize hydropower generation and power generation guarantee rate reveal clear trade-offs between hydrological drought risk and hydropower benefits, thereby underscoring the importance of enhancing reservoir operation strategies for future drought management in reservoir-regulated basins.</p>}},
  author       = {{He, Shaokun and Sun, Sirui and Liu, Yanghe and Chen, Kebing and Zhu, Lingling and Gong, Yu}},
  issn         = {{1027-5606}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{3529--3547}},
  publisher    = {{European Geophysical Society}},
  series       = {{Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}},
  title        = {{Projections of future hydrological drought in a reservoir-regulated region : The roles of climate change and reservoir operation}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3529-2026}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/hess-30-3529-2026}},
  volume       = {{30}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}