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Modelling the effective dose to a population from fallout after a nuclear power plant accident—A scenario-based study with mitigating actions

Isaksson, Mats LU ; Tondel, Martin ; Wålinder, Robert and Rääf, Christopher LU (2019) In PLoS ONE 14(4). p.1-20
Abstract


The radiological consequences of a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, resulting in the release of radionuclides to the environment, will depend largely on the mitigating actions instigated shortly after the accident. It is therefore important to make predictions of the radiation dose to the affected population, from external as well as internal exposure, soon after an accident, despite the fact that data are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop a model for the prediction of the cumulative effective dose up to 84 years of age based on the ground deposition of
137
... (More)


The radiological consequences of a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, resulting in the release of radionuclides to the environment, will depend largely on the mitigating actions instigated shortly after the accident. It is therefore important to make predictions of the radiation dose to the affected population, from external as well as internal exposure, soon after an accident, despite the fact that data are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop a model for the prediction of the cumulative effective dose up to 84 years of age based on the ground deposition of
137
Cs that is determined soon after fallout. The model accounts for different assumptions regarding external and internal dose contributions, and the model parameters in this study were chosen to reflect various mitigating actions. Furthermore, the relative importance of these parameters was determined by sensitivity analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this model is unique as it allows quantification of both the external and the internal effective dose using only a fallout map of
137
Cs after a nuclear power plant accident. The cumulative effective dose over a period of 50 years following the accident per unit
137
Cs deposited was found to range from 0.14 mSv/kBq m
-2
to 1.5 mSv/kBq m
-2
, depending on the mitigating actions undertaken. According to the sensitivity analysis, the most important parameters governing the cumulative effective dose to various adult populations during 50 years after the fallout appear to be: the correlation factor between the local areal deposition of
137
Cs and the maximum initial ambient dose rate; the maximum transfer from regional average fallout on the ground to body burden; the local areal deposition of
137
Cs; and the regional average
137
Cs deposition. Therefore, it is important that mapping of local
137
Cs deposition is carried out immediately after fallout from a nuclear power plant accident, followed by calculations of radiation doses for different scenarios using well-known parameters, in order to identify the most efficient mitigation strategies. Given this
137
Cs mapping, we believe our model is a valuable tool for long-term radiological assessment in the early phase after NPP accidents.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Nuclear power plant
in
PLoS ONE
volume
14
issue
4
article number
e0215081
pages
20 pages
publisher
Public Library of Science
external identifiers
  • pmid:30964917
  • scopus:85064082604
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0215081https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215081
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e19a8d1e-2931-4a35-95b2-407564b64697
date added to LUP
2019-04-26 08:54:28
date last changed
2020-01-22 07:33:09
@article{e19a8d1e-2931-4a35-95b2-407564b64697,
  abstract     = {<p><br>
                                                         The radiological consequences of a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, resulting in the release of radionuclides to the environment, will depend largely on the mitigating actions instigated shortly after the accident. It is therefore important to make predictions of the radiation dose to the affected population, from external as well as internal exposure, soon after an accident, despite the fact that data are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop a model for the prediction of the cumulative effective dose up to 84 years of age based on the ground deposition of                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs that is determined soon after fallout. The model accounts for different assumptions regarding external and internal dose contributions, and the model parameters in this study were chosen to reflect various mitigating actions. Furthermore, the relative importance of these parameters was determined by sensitivity analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this model is unique as it allows quantification of both the external and the internal effective dose using only a fallout map of                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs after a nuclear power plant accident. The cumulative effective dose over a period of 50 years following the accident per unit                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs deposited was found to range from 0.14 mSv/kBq m                             <br>
                            <sup>-2</sup><br>
                                                          to 1.5 mSv/kBq m                             <br>
                            <sup>-2</sup><br>
                                                         , depending on the mitigating actions undertaken. According to the sensitivity analysis, the most important parameters governing the cumulative effective dose to various adult populations during 50 years after the fallout appear to be: the correlation factor between the local areal deposition of                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs and the maximum initial ambient dose rate; the maximum transfer from regional average fallout on the ground to body burden; the local areal deposition of                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs; and the regional average                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs deposition. Therefore, it is important that mapping of local                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs deposition is carried out immediately after fallout from a nuclear power plant accident, followed by calculations of radiation doses for different scenarios using well-known parameters, in order to identify the most efficient mitigation strategies. Given this                              <br>
                            <sup>137</sup><br>
                                                         Cs mapping, we believe our model is a valuable tool for long-term radiological assessment in the early phase after NPP accidents.                         <br>
                        </p>},
  author       = {Isaksson, Mats and Tondel, Martin and Wålinder, Robert and Rääf, Christopher},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {04},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {1--20},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science},
  series       = {PLoS ONE},
  title        = {Modelling the effective dose to a population from fallout after a nuclear power plant accident—A scenario-based study with mitigating actions},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215081https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215081},
  doi          = {10.1371/journal.pone.0215081https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215081},
  volume       = {14},
  year         = {2019},
}