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Investing in fiscal capacity : legislative debates, military pressures, and tax policy in the United Kingdom (1803–1913)

Goenaga, Agustín LU and Sabaté, Oriol (2026) In Journal of Institutional Economics 21.
Abstract

Numerous studies show an association between military pressures and fiscal development, often based on cross-national correlations between wars and fiscal outcomes (e.g., tax ratios). However, investments in fiscal capacity may take time to yield higher tax revenues, obscuring the importance of factors that contributed to those investments. This article shifts attention from fiscal outcomes to the policymaking process. Using text-as-data techniques to analyse British parliamentary debates from 1803 to 1913, it offers new micro-level evidence of the relationship between military pressures and fiscal policymaking in the United Kingdom during the long 19th century. Our analyses show that military issues were associated with higher fiscal... (More)

Numerous studies show an association between military pressures and fiscal development, often based on cross-national correlations between wars and fiscal outcomes (e.g., tax ratios). However, investments in fiscal capacity may take time to yield higher tax revenues, obscuring the importance of factors that contributed to those investments. This article shifts attention from fiscal outcomes to the policymaking process. Using text-as-data techniques to analyse British parliamentary debates from 1803 to 1913, it offers new micro-level evidence of the relationship between military pressures and fiscal policymaking in the United Kingdom during the long 19th century. Our analyses show that military issues were associated with higher fiscal salience and lower contestation in tax debates. Qualitative analyses indicate that military issues were recurrently invoked to support the renewal of the personal income tax despite attempts to repeal it, confirming the close link between military and fiscal issues in shaping the modern British fiscal state.

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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Bellicist theory, fiscal capacity, Natural Language Processing, state capacity, United Kingdom
in
Journal of Institutional Economics
volume
21
article number
e47
publisher
Cambridge University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:105026395520
ISSN
1744-1374
DOI
10.1017/S1744137425100349
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e259b699-16cb-434d-a402-31cb1bcd7b53
date added to LUP
2026-03-16 10:24:01
date last changed
2026-03-16 10:24:35
@article{e259b699-16cb-434d-a402-31cb1bcd7b53,
  abstract     = {{<p>Numerous studies show an association between military pressures and fiscal development, often based on cross-national correlations between wars and fiscal outcomes (e.g., tax ratios). However, investments in fiscal capacity may take time to yield higher tax revenues, obscuring the importance of factors that contributed to those investments. This article shifts attention from fiscal outcomes to the policymaking process. Using text-as-data techniques to analyse British parliamentary debates from 1803 to 1913, it offers new micro-level evidence of the relationship between military pressures and fiscal policymaking in the United Kingdom during the long 19th century. Our analyses show that military issues were associated with higher fiscal salience and lower contestation in tax debates. Qualitative analyses indicate that military issues were recurrently invoked to support the renewal of the personal income tax despite attempts to repeal it, confirming the close link between military and fiscal issues in shaping the modern British fiscal state.</p>}},
  author       = {{Goenaga, Agustín and Sabaté, Oriol}},
  issn         = {{1744-1374}},
  keywords     = {{Bellicist theory; fiscal capacity; Natural Language Processing; state capacity; United Kingdom}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  publisher    = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  series       = {{Journal of Institutional Economics}},
  title        = {{Investing in fiscal capacity : legislative debates, military pressures, and tax policy in the United Kingdom (1803–1913)}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1744137425100349}},
  doi          = {{10.1017/S1744137425100349}},
  volume       = {{21}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}