Skip to main content

Lund University Publications

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

SWAT simulation of streamflow in Sironko catchment on Mt. Elgon, Eastern Uganda

Kilama Luwa, Justine LU ; Mwanjalolo Majaliwa, Jackson Gilbert ; Bamutaze, Yazidhi ; Pilesjö, Petter LU and Bagula Mukengere, Espoir (2025) In Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research 13(3). p.236-250
Abstract

We determined the 2025-2040 impact of climate and land use land cover change on streamflow in the Sironko catchment. LULCC was predicted using Cellular Automata Markov. The climate was statistically downscaled from the 29 GCMs of the IPCC Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project using the delta method of the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project under five climate regimes and Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Streamflow was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. One sample t-test confirmed significant differences in the 1980–2010 and 2025–2040 streamflow. A second-degree regression model computed the contributions of climate and LULCC on streamflow. Significant differences (p <... (More)

We determined the 2025-2040 impact of climate and land use land cover change on streamflow in the Sironko catchment. LULCC was predicted using Cellular Automata Markov. The climate was statistically downscaled from the 29 GCMs of the IPCC Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project using the delta method of the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project under five climate regimes and Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Streamflow was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. One sample t-test confirmed significant differences in the 1980–2010 and 2025–2040 streamflow. A second-degree regression model computed the contributions of climate and LULCC on streamflow. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were detected in the 1980–2010 and 2025–2040 streamflow. Climate change will increase streamflow by 7.6–49.20% and 6.50–59.20% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 while LULCC will increase streamflow by 4.10–39.20% and 1.30–45.30% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 calling for a multifaceted approach to mitigate the identified impacts.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, climate regimes, impact, land use/cover change, RCPs
in
Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research
volume
13
issue
3
pages
15 pages
publisher
Taylor & Francis
external identifiers
  • scopus:105003470039
DOI
10.1080/23249676.2025.2492599
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e2781fe8-cf7f-4b65-8b9f-09ad9e4acdd6
date added to LUP
2025-09-24 14:01:49
date last changed
2025-10-14 12:11:24
@article{e2781fe8-cf7f-4b65-8b9f-09ad9e4acdd6,
  abstract     = {{<p>We determined the 2025-2040 impact of climate and land use land cover change on streamflow in the Sironko catchment. LULCC was predicted using Cellular Automata Markov. The climate was statistically downscaled from the 29 GCMs of the IPCC Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project using the delta method of the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project under five climate regimes and Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Streamflow was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. One sample t-test confirmed significant differences in the 1980–2010 and 2025–2040 streamflow. A second-degree regression model computed the contributions of climate and LULCC on streamflow. Significant differences (p &lt; 0.05) were detected in the 1980–2010 and 2025–2040 streamflow. Climate change will increase streamflow by 7.6–49.20% and 6.50–59.20% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 while LULCC will increase streamflow by 4.10–39.20% and 1.30–45.30% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 calling for a multifaceted approach to mitigate the identified impacts.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kilama Luwa, Justine and Mwanjalolo Majaliwa, Jackson Gilbert and Bamutaze, Yazidhi and Pilesjö, Petter and Bagula Mukengere, Espoir}},
  keywords     = {{Climate change; climate regimes; impact; land use/cover change; RCPs}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3}},
  pages        = {{236--250}},
  publisher    = {{Taylor & Francis}},
  series       = {{Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research}},
  title        = {{SWAT simulation of streamflow in Sironko catchment on Mt. Elgon, Eastern Uganda}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23249676.2025.2492599}},
  doi          = {{10.1080/23249676.2025.2492599}},
  volume       = {{13}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}