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The black box of regional growth

Grillitsch, Markus LU ; Martynovich, Mikhail LU ; Fitjar, Rune Dahl and Haus-Reve, Silje (2021) In Journal of Geographical Systems
Abstract

Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Case selection methodology, Outlier regions, Path-dependency, Regional development, Regional growth models, Residual analysis
in
Journal of Geographical Systems
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85099960579
ISSN
1435-5930
DOI
10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3
project
Regional Growth against all odds
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e61d6548-b39f-4f2c-8dc9-6c30e3df9d9e
date added to LUP
2021-02-08 07:18:17
date last changed
2021-03-02 13:48:15
@article{e61d6548-b39f-4f2c-8dc9-6c30e3df9d9e,
  abstract     = {<p>Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.</p>},
  author       = {Grillitsch, Markus and Martynovich, Mikhail and Fitjar, Rune Dahl and Haus-Reve, Silje},
  issn         = {1435-5930},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {01},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Journal of Geographical Systems},
  title        = {The black box of regional growth},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3},
  doi          = {10.1007/s10109-020-00341-3},
  year         = {2021},
}