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Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

Lee, C K ; Simes, R J ; Brown, C ; Lord, S ; Wagner, U ; Plante, M ; Vergote, I ; Pisano, C ; Parma, G and Burges, A , et al. (2011) In British Journal of Cancer 105(8). p.50-1144
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.

RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and... (More)

BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.

RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.

CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

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keywords
Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use, Carboplatin/therapeutic use, Cohort Studies, Disease-Free Survival, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Ovarian Neoplasms/drug therapy, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models
in
British Journal of Cancer
volume
105
issue
8
pages
50 - 1144
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:80053999734
  • pmid:21915127
ISSN
1532-1827
DOI
10.1038/bjc.2011.364
language
English
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no
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e7b0b8e7-3b73-4c01-8004-15b462fc9ee7
date added to LUP
2019-09-20 07:44:28
date last changed
2020-01-13 02:24:34
@article{e7b0b8e7-3b73-4c01-8004-15b462fc9ee7,
  abstract     = {<p>BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.</p><p>METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.</p><p>RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.</p><p>CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.</p>},
  author       = {Lee, C K and Simes, R J and Brown, C and Lord, S and Wagner, U and Plante, M and Vergote, I and Pisano, C and Parma, G and Burges, A and Bourgeois, H and Högberg, T and Bentley, J and Angleitner-Boubenizek, L and Ferrero, A and Richter, B and Hirte, H and Gebski, V and Pfisterer, J and Pujade-Lauraine, E and Friedlander, M},
  issn         = {1532-1827},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {10},
  number       = {8},
  pages        = {50--1144},
  publisher    = {Nature Publishing Group},
  series       = {British Journal of Cancer},
  title        = {Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2011.364},
  doi          = {10.1038/bjc.2011.364},
  volume       = {105},
  year         = {2011},
}