The potential for evolutionary rescue in an Arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change
(2024) In Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 291(2032).- Abstract
The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer... (More)
The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.
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- author
- Mattila, Anniina L.K. ; Opedal, Øystein H. LU ; Hällfors, Maria H. ; Pietikäinen, Laura ; Koivusaari, Susanna H.M. and Hyvärinen, Marko Tapio
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024-10-02
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- climate change adaptation, evolutionary potential, evolutionary rescue, evolvability, G-matrix, pollinator decline
- in
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- volume
- 291
- issue
- 2032
- article number
- 20241351
- publisher
- Royal Society Publishing
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85206818460
- pmid:39355964
- ISSN
- 0962-8452
- DOI
- 10.1098/rspb.2024.1351
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors.
- id
- eba9aab6-894d-42f1-88a2-ae413e60aada
- date added to LUP
- 2024-11-20 08:35:08
- date last changed
- 2024-12-18 11:37:19
@article{eba9aab6-894d-42f1-88a2-ae413e60aada,
abstract = {{<p>The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.</p>}},
author = {{Mattila, Anniina L.K. and Opedal, Øystein H. and Hällfors, Maria H. and Pietikäinen, Laura and Koivusaari, Susanna H.M. and Hyvärinen, Marko Tapio}},
issn = {{0962-8452}},
keywords = {{climate change adaptation; evolutionary potential; evolutionary rescue; evolvability; G-matrix; pollinator decline}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{10}},
number = {{2032}},
publisher = {{Royal Society Publishing}},
series = {{Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}},
title = {{The potential for evolutionary rescue in an Arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.1351}},
doi = {{10.1098/rspb.2024.1351}},
volume = {{291}},
year = {{2024}},
}