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Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean

Zhong, Yi ; Lu, Zhengyao LU orcid ; Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie ; Yu, Jimin ; Horikawa, Keiji ; Dekkers, Mark J. ; Larrasoaña, Juan C. ; Clift, Peter D. ; Weber, Michael E. and Vermassen, Flor , et al. (2025) In Nature Communications 16(1).
Abstract

Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model... (More)

Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Communications
volume
16
issue
1
article number
1143
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85217624033
  • pmid:39881125
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f1c517fb-9e8f-4b31-a6ea-2568d9b6f95b
date added to LUP
2026-01-12 13:42:16
date last changed
2026-01-13 03:00:12
@article{f1c517fb-9e8f-4b31-a6ea-2568d9b6f95b,
  abstract     = {{<p>Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.</p>}},
  author       = {{Zhong, Yi and Lu, Zhengyao and Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie and Yu, Jimin and Horikawa, Keiji and Dekkers, Mark J. and Larrasoaña, Juan C. and Clift, Peter D. and Weber, Michael E. and Vermassen, Flor and Kender, Sev and Sun, Chijun and Yang, Hu and Wang, Xianfeng and Andresen, Camilla S. and Liu, Yanguang and Zhang, Haiwei and Dai, Zhengyang and Niu, Lu and Zhang, Jingyu and Feng, Xuguang and Zhao, Debo and Xia, Wenyue and Yang, Sheng and Li, Hai and Liu, Qingsong}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1}},
  volume       = {{16}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}