Improving fiscal policy in the EU : The case for independent forecasts
(2006) In Economic Policy 21(47). p.492-534- Abstract
- We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f305aa45-75cb-4ca2-9012-7fda1d5edf44
- author
- Jonung, Lars LU and Larch, Martin
- publishing date
- 2006-08-04
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Economic Policy
- volume
- 21
- issue
- 47
- pages
- 43 pages
- publisher
- Oxford University Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:33745961312
- DOI
- 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- additional info
- Cited By :50 Export Date: 22 February 2017
- id
- f305aa45-75cb-4ca2-9012-7fda1d5edf44
- alternative location
- https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-33745961312&doi=10.1111%2fj.1468-0327.2006.00162.x&partnerID=40&md5=f0f52918a3f140c57b383f6c6d875030
- date added to LUP
- 2017-02-23 10:28:46
- date last changed
- 2022-04-24 22:05:37
@article{f305aa45-75cb-4ca2-9012-7fda1d5edf44, abstract = {{We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.}}, author = {{Jonung, Lars and Larch, Martin}}, language = {{eng}}, month = {{08}}, number = {{47}}, pages = {{492--534}}, publisher = {{Oxford University Press}}, series = {{Economic Policy}}, title = {{Improving fiscal policy in the EU : The case for independent forecasts}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x}}, doi = {{10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x}}, volume = {{21}}, year = {{2006}}, }