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Improving fiscal policy in the EU : The case for independent forecasts

Jonung, Lars LU and Larch, Martin (2006) In Economic Policy 21(47). p.492-534
Abstract
We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.
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author
and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Economic Policy
volume
21
issue
47
pages
43 pages
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:33745961312
DOI
10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x
language
English
LU publication?
no
additional info
Cited By :50 Export Date: 22 February 2017
id
f305aa45-75cb-4ca2-9012-7fda1d5edf44
alternative location
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-33745961312&doi=10.1111%2fj.1468-0327.2006.00162.x&partnerID=40&md5=f0f52918a3f140c57b383f6c6d875030
date added to LUP
2017-02-23 10:28:46
date last changed
2022-04-24 22:05:37
@article{f305aa45-75cb-4ca2-9012-7fda1d5edf44,
  abstract     = {{We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.}},
  author       = {{Jonung, Lars and Larch, Martin}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  number       = {{47}},
  pages        = {{492--534}},
  publisher    = {{Oxford University Press}},
  series       = {{Economic Policy}},
  title        = {{Improving fiscal policy in the EU : The case for independent forecasts}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x}},
  volume       = {{21}},
  year         = {{2006}},
}