National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets
(2021) In Nature Energy 6(7). p.742-754- Abstract
Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding... (More)
Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.
(Less)
- author
- Cherp, Aleh LU ; Vinichenko, Vadim LU ; Tosun, Jale ; Gordon, Joel A. and Jewell, Jessica
- organization
- publishing date
- 2021-07
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Nature Energy
- volume
- 6
- issue
- 7
- pages
- 13 pages
- publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85111120282
- ISSN
- 2058-7546
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- f73499cc-515e-4555-a941-dbacda731c28
- date added to LUP
- 2021-08-25 09:26:23
- date last changed
- 2024-02-02 14:59:05
@article{f73499cc-515e-4555-a941-dbacda731c28,
abstract = {{<p>Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.</p>}},
author = {{Cherp, Aleh and Vinichenko, Vadim and Tosun, Jale and Gordon, Joel A. and Jewell, Jessica}},
issn = {{2058-7546}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{7}},
pages = {{742--754}},
publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
series = {{Nature Energy}},
title = {{National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0}},
doi = {{10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0}},
volume = {{6}},
year = {{2021}},
}