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Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019

Spreco, Armin ; Eriksson, Olle ; Dahlström, Örjan ; Cowling, Benjamin John ; Biggerstaff, Matthew ; Ljunggren, Gunnar ; Jöud, Anna LU orcid ; Istefan, Emanuel and Timpka, Toomas (2020) In Emerging Infectious Diseases 26(11). p.2669-2677
Abstract

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was... (More)

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Emerging Infectious Diseases
volume
26
issue
11
pages
9 pages
publisher
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85094220836
  • pmid:33079036
ISSN
1080-6040
DOI
10.3201/eid2611.200448
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f9688a58-791d-4102-9cf3-8460ed49e07d
date added to LUP
2021-01-14 17:33:56
date last changed
2025-10-14 09:47:20
@article{f9688a58-791d-4102-9cf3-8460ed49e07d,
  abstract     = {{<p>The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.</p>}},
  author       = {{Spreco, Armin and Eriksson, Olle and Dahlström, Örjan and Cowling, Benjamin John and Biggerstaff, Matthew and Ljunggren, Gunnar and Jöud, Anna and Istefan, Emanuel and Timpka, Toomas}},
  issn         = {{1080-6040}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{11}},
  pages        = {{2669--2677}},
  publisher    = {{Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)}},
  series       = {{Emerging Infectious Diseases}},
  title        = {{Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2611.200448}},
  doi          = {{10.3201/eid2611.200448}},
  volume       = {{26}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}