Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019
(2020) In Emerging Infectious Diseases 26(11). p.2669-2677- Abstract
The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was... (More)
The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
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- author
- Spreco, Armin ; Eriksson, Olle ; Dahlström, Örjan ; Cowling, Benjamin John ; Biggerstaff, Matthew ; Ljunggren, Gunnar ; Jöud, Anna LU ; Istefan, Emanuel and Timpka, Toomas
- organization
- publishing date
- 2020-11
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Emerging Infectious Diseases
- volume
- 26
- issue
- 11
- pages
- 9 pages
- publisher
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:33079036
- scopus:85094220836
- ISSN
- 1080-6040
- DOI
- 10.3201/eid2611.200448
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- f9688a58-791d-4102-9cf3-8460ed49e07d
- date added to LUP
- 2021-01-14 17:33:56
- date last changed
- 2024-04-03 22:25:51
@article{f9688a58-791d-4102-9cf3-8460ed49e07d, abstract = {{<p>The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.</p>}}, author = {{Spreco, Armin and Eriksson, Olle and Dahlström, Örjan and Cowling, Benjamin John and Biggerstaff, Matthew and Ljunggren, Gunnar and Jöud, Anna and Istefan, Emanuel and Timpka, Toomas}}, issn = {{1080-6040}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{11}}, pages = {{2669--2677}}, publisher = {{Centers for Disease Control and Prevention}}, series = {{Emerging Infectious Diseases}}, title = {{Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2611.200448}}, doi = {{10.3201/eid2611.200448}}, volume = {{26}}, year = {{2020}}, }