Measuring Inflation Expectations in Interwar Britain
(2023) In Economic History Review 76(3). p.844-870- Abstract
- What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high-frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/fa67e9b8-1bd0-4a12-ac83-066e71c77cf0
- author
- Lennard, Jason LU ; Meinecke, Finn and Solomou, Solomos
- publishing date
- 2023
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- E3, E6, N14, Great Depression, inflation expectations, interwar Britain, regime change
- in
- Economic History Review
- volume
- 76
- issue
- 3
- pages
- 844 - 870
- publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85140367220
- ISSN
- 1468-0289
- DOI
- 10.1111/ehr.13215
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- fa67e9b8-1bd0-4a12-ac83-066e71c77cf0
- date added to LUP
- 2022-09-16 15:01:18
- date last changed
- 2023-07-03 11:43:32
@article{fa67e9b8-1bd0-4a12-ac83-066e71c77cf0, abstract = {{What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high-frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.}}, author = {{Lennard, Jason and Meinecke, Finn and Solomou, Solomos}}, issn = {{1468-0289}}, keywords = {{E3; E6; N14; Great Depression; inflation expectations; interwar Britain; regime change}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{3}}, pages = {{844--870}}, publisher = {{Wiley-Blackwell}}, series = {{Economic History Review}}, title = {{Measuring Inflation Expectations in Interwar Britain}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13215}}, doi = {{10.1111/ehr.13215}}, volume = {{76}}, year = {{2023}}, }