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A unified account of the conjunction fallacy by coherence

Jönsson, Martin L. LU and Shogenji, Tomoji (2017) In Synthese
Abstract

We propose a coherence account of the conjunction fallacy applicable to both of its two paradigms (the M–A paradigm and the A–B paradigm). We compare our account with a recent proposal by Tentori et al. (J Exp Psychol Gen 142(1): 235–255, 2013) that attempts to generalize earlier confirmation accounts. Their model works better than its predecessors in some respects, but it exhibits only a shallow form of generality and is unsatisfactory in other ways as well: it is strained, complex, and untestable as it stands. Our coherence account inherits the strength of the confirmation account, but in addition to being applicable to both paradigms, it is natural, simple, and readily testable. It thus constitutes the next natural step for Bayesian... (More)

We propose a coherence account of the conjunction fallacy applicable to both of its two paradigms (the M–A paradigm and the A–B paradigm). We compare our account with a recent proposal by Tentori et al. (J Exp Psychol Gen 142(1): 235–255, 2013) that attempts to generalize earlier confirmation accounts. Their model works better than its predecessors in some respects, but it exhibits only a shallow form of generality and is unsatisfactory in other ways as well: it is strained, complex, and untestable as it stands. Our coherence account inherits the strength of the confirmation account, but in addition to being applicable to both paradigms, it is natural, simple, and readily testable. It thus constitutes the next natural step for Bayesian theorizing about the conjunction fallacy.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
A–B paradigm, Coherence account, Coherence measure, Confirmation account, Conjunction fallacy, M–A paradigm
in
Synthese
pages
17 pages
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85021140711
ISSN
0039-7857
DOI
10.1007/s11229-017-1467-z
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fd7a4daa-fb3d-4057-94a1-7fdccddb1f37
date added to LUP
2017-07-11 12:55:27
date last changed
2018-01-07 12:11:17
@article{fd7a4daa-fb3d-4057-94a1-7fdccddb1f37,
  abstract     = {<p>We propose a coherence account of the conjunction fallacy applicable to both of its two paradigms (the M–A paradigm and the A–B paradigm). We compare our account with a recent proposal by Tentori et al. (J Exp Psychol Gen 142(1): 235–255, 2013) that attempts to generalize earlier confirmation accounts. Their model works better than its predecessors in some respects, but it exhibits only a shallow form of generality and is unsatisfactory in other ways as well: it is strained, complex, and untestable as it stands. Our coherence account inherits the strength of the confirmation account, but in addition to being applicable to both paradigms, it is natural, simple, and readily testable. It thus constitutes the next natural step for Bayesian theorizing about the conjunction fallacy.</p>},
  author       = {Jönsson, Martin L. and Shogenji, Tomoji},
  issn         = {0039-7857},
  keyword      = {A–B paradigm,Coherence account,Coherence measure,Confirmation account,Conjunction fallacy,M–A paradigm},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {06},
  pages        = {17},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Synthese},
  title        = {A unified account of the conjunction fallacy by coherence},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-017-1467-z},
  year         = {2017},
}