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The Puzzle of the Hats

Rabinowicz, Wlodek LU and Bovens, Luc (2010) In Synthese 172. p.57-78
Abstract
The Puzzle of the Hats is a betting arrangement which appears to show that a Dutch book can be made against a group of rational players with common priors who act in the common interest and have full trust in the other players’ rationality. But we show that appearances are misleading—no such Dutch book can be made. There are four morals. First, what can be learned from the puzzle is that there is a class of situations in which credences and betting rates diverge. Second, there is an analogy between ways of dealing with situations of this kind and different policies for sequential choice. Third, there is an analogy with strategic voting, showing that the common interest is not always served by expressing how things seem to you in social... (More)
The Puzzle of the Hats is a betting arrangement which appears to show that a Dutch book can be made against a group of rational players with common priors who act in the common interest and have full trust in the other players’ rationality. But we show that appearances are misleading—no such Dutch book can be made. There are four morals. First, what can be learned from the puzzle is that there is a class of situations in which credences and betting rates diverge. Second, there is an analogy between ways of dealing with situations of this kind and different policies for sequential choice. Third, there is an analogy with strategic voting, showing that the common interest is not always served by expressing how things seem to you in social decision-making. And fourth, our analysis of the Puzzle of the Hats casts light on a recent controversy about the Dutch book argument for the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Sequential choice, Strategic voting, Sleeping Beauty, Dutch Book, Betting rates, Puzzle of the Hats, Credences, Rational choice, Rationality
in
Synthese
volume
172
pages
57 - 78
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000272324000004
  • scopus:77349102502
ISSN
0039-7857
DOI
10.1007/s11229-009-9476-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
feee16bd-7c9e-499e-820f-55bd1ea1d58d (old id 1458741)
date added to LUP
2009-09-02 09:51:40
date last changed
2017-02-12 03:57:48
@article{feee16bd-7c9e-499e-820f-55bd1ea1d58d,
  abstract     = {The Puzzle of the Hats is a betting arrangement which appears to show that a Dutch book can be made against a group of rational players with common priors who act in the common interest and have full trust in the other players’ rationality. But we show that appearances are misleading—no such Dutch book can be made. There are four morals. First, what can be learned from the puzzle is that there is a class of situations in which credences and betting rates diverge. Second, there is an analogy between ways of dealing with situations of this kind and different policies for sequential choice. Third, there is an analogy with strategic voting, showing that the common interest is not always served by expressing how things seem to you in social decision-making. And fourth, our analysis of the Puzzle of the Hats casts light on a recent controversy about the Dutch book argument for the Sleeping Beauty Problem.},
  author       = {Rabinowicz, Wlodek and Bovens, Luc},
  issn         = {0039-7857},
  keyword      = {Sequential choice,Strategic voting,Sleeping Beauty,Dutch Book,Betting rates,Puzzle of the Hats,Credences,Rational choice,Rationality},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {57--78},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Synthese},
  title        = {The Puzzle of the Hats},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-009-9476-1},
  volume       = {172},
  year         = {2010},
}