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Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Elliott, Joshua ; Deryng, Delphine ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Arneth, Almut LU ; Boote, Kenneth J. ; Folberth, Christian ; Glotter, Michael ; Khabarov, Nikolay and Neumann, Kathleen , et al. (2014) In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111(9). p.3268-3273
Abstract

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a... (More)

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

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publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
AgMIP, Agriculture, Climate impacts, Food security, ISI-MIP
in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
volume
111
issue
9
pages
6 pages
publisher
National Academy of Sciences
external identifiers
  • scopus:84895794881
  • pmid:24344314
ISSN
0027-8424
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1222463110
language
English
LU publication?
no
additional info
Erratum: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2016) 111 (3268-3273) DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110) (2016) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113 (5), p. E665.
id
ff2ce420-9430-412b-8df0-f9f12a40c488
date added to LUP
2020-11-19 23:24:53
date last changed
2024-07-12 04:36:13
@article{ff2ce420-9430-412b-8df0-f9f12a40c488,
  abstract     = {{<p>Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.</p>}},
  author       = {{Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Elliott, Joshua and Deryng, Delphine and Ruane, Alex C. and Arneth, Almut and Boote, Kenneth J. and Folberth, Christian and Glotter, Michael and Khabarov, Nikolay and Neumann, Kathleen and Piontek, Franziska and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Schmid, Erwin and Stehfest, Elke and Yang, Hong and Jones, James W.}},
  issn         = {{0027-8424}},
  keywords     = {{AgMIP; Agriculture; Climate impacts; Food security; ISI-MIP}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{03}},
  number       = {{9}},
  pages        = {{3268--3273}},
  publisher    = {{National Academy of Sciences}},
  series       = {{Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}},
  title        = {{Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110}},
  doi          = {{10.1073/pnas.1222463110}},
  volume       = {{111}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}