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The Predictive Performance of Implied and Historical Volatility

Aliu, Erit LU and Selin, Elias LU (2026) NEKH02 20252
Department of Economics
Abstract
This thesis examines whether implied volatility derived from Swedish equity options provides superior predictive information relative to historical volatility for future realized volatility and stock returns, and whether this information improves portfolio risk outcomes. Using monthly option and stock data for OMXS30 firms, the study applies predictive regressions and constructs minimum variance portfolios based on implied volatility and historical volatility. The results show that implied volatility consistently outperforms historical volatility in forecasting realized volatility and exhibits stronger return predictability, while historical volatility shows no return predictive power. These forecasting gains translate into economically... (More)
This thesis examines whether implied volatility derived from Swedish equity options provides superior predictive information relative to historical volatility for future realized volatility and stock returns, and whether this information improves portfolio risk outcomes. Using monthly option and stock data for OMXS30 firms, the study applies predictive regressions and constructs minimum variance portfolios based on implied volatility and historical volatility. The results show that implied volatility consistently outperforms historical volatility in forecasting realized volatility and exhibits stronger return predictability, while historical volatility shows no return predictive power. These forecasting gains translate into economically meaningful portfolio improvements, as an implied volatility-based minimum variance portfolio achieves lower realized variance and downside risk than standard benchmarks. The findings highlight the practical relevance of implied volatility for risk management in the Swedish equity market, extending prior evidence beyond U.S. equity markets. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Aliu, Erit LU and Selin, Elias LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH02 20252
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Implied Volatility, Volatility Predictability, Return Predictability, Implied Volatility-Based Minimum Variance Portfolio, Panel Data
language
English
id
9222242
date added to LUP
2026-04-07 13:31:06
date last changed
2026-04-07 13:31:06
@misc{9222242,
  abstract     = {{This thesis examines whether implied volatility derived from Swedish equity options provides superior predictive information relative to historical volatility for future realized volatility and stock returns, and whether this information improves portfolio risk outcomes. Using monthly option and stock data for OMXS30 firms, the study applies predictive regressions and constructs minimum variance portfolios based on implied volatility and historical volatility. The results show that implied volatility consistently outperforms historical volatility in forecasting realized volatility and exhibits stronger return predictability, while historical volatility shows no return predictive power. These forecasting gains translate into economically meaningful portfolio improvements, as an implied volatility-based minimum variance portfolio achieves lower realized variance and downside risk than standard benchmarks. The findings highlight the practical relevance of implied volatility for risk management in the Swedish equity market, extending prior evidence beyond U.S. equity markets.}},
  author       = {{Aliu, Erit and Selin, Elias}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Predictive Performance of Implied and Historical Volatility}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}