GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for Flood Risk Assessment in the Thermi Basin
(2026) In Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science GISM01 20261Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (MGeo)
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- Abstract
- Flood risk is influenced not only by climate change but also underlying factors including unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, poverty, social inequalities and weak governance. Given its complexity, effective flood risk management requires a better understanding of its conceptual context and comprehensive assessments that beyond hazard consider exposure, vulnerability and capacity. The study proposes a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for assessing and mapping flood risk in the Thermi Basin in northern Greece, which is characterized by significant urban expansion, different land use/ land cover, dense hydrographic network, varied topography and seasonal precipitation events. The methodology analyzes... (More)
- Flood risk is influenced not only by climate change but also underlying factors including unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, poverty, social inequalities and weak governance. Given its complexity, effective flood risk management requires a better understanding of its conceptual context and comprehensive assessments that beyond hazard consider exposure, vulnerability and capacity. The study proposes a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for assessing and mapping flood risk in the Thermi Basin in northern Greece, which is characterized by significant urban expansion, different land use/ land cover, dense hydrographic network, varied topography and seasonal precipitation events. The methodology analyzes seventeen parameters representing flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability/ capacity components. Parameter weighting is applied using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on expert judgments while Weighted Overlay Analysis is performed in GIS to create the flood risk map. The results indicate that 8,26% (503ha) of the study area is classified as low flood risk, 83,94% (5114ha) as moderate flood risk and 7,80% (476ha) as high flood risk. Impact analysis highlights
varying potential impacts on the environment, infrastructure and population and the validation against official Areas of Potential Significant Flood Risk (APSFR) and 18 flood-prone locations generally confirms the plausibility of the model’s results. Finally, the framework proposes some indicative strategies for each flood risk zone that planners and decision-makers can further develop to support their mitigation efforts. (Less) - Popular Abstract
- Precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. While we cannot change this, we can limit their impacts with preventive and informed planning. The project aims to assess and map flood risk within the Thermi Basin by combining scientific tools with local knowledge and expertise. What makes this approach different is that it analyzes not only technical (e.g. elevation and precipitation), but also socioeconomic parameters (e.g. demographics and distance from points of interest). The parameters were selected and then prioritized in collaboration with local experts and stakeholders in spatial and environmental planning, hydrology/ hydraulics and disaster risk management fields. They were also combined to... (More)
- Precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. While we cannot change this, we can limit their impacts with preventive and informed planning. The project aims to assess and map flood risk within the Thermi Basin by combining scientific tools with local knowledge and expertise. What makes this approach different is that it analyzes not only technical (e.g. elevation and precipitation), but also socioeconomic parameters (e.g. demographics and distance from points of interest). The parameters were selected and then prioritized in collaboration with local experts and stakeholders in spatial and environmental planning, hydrology/ hydraulics and disaster risk management fields. They were also combined to create a flood risk map showing which areas are likely to be affected as well as the potential impacts on the environment, infrastructure and population. The map classifies the area into low, moderate and high-risk zones. Most of the area is characterized by moderate-risk and is expected to be the most affected due to its extent. High risk-zone while smaller, includes some parts of the settlements that could be locally affected. Finally, strategies were proposed for each flood risk zone. These can support planners and decision-makers to develop specific interventions based on local needs and to manage flood risk in a more responsible, sustainable and inclusive manner. As flood risk management concerns everyone, ensuring communities’ resilience should be a priority. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9225892
- author
- Karapanagiotidou, Polyxeni LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- GISM01 20261
- year
- 2026
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Geography, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), Physical Geography, Flood Risk Assessment, GIS-based MCDA, AHP
- publication/series
- Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science
- report number
- 210
- language
- English
- id
- 9225892
- date added to LUP
- 2026-05-07 09:21:38
- date last changed
- 2026-05-07 09:21:38
@misc{9225892,
abstract = {{Flood risk is influenced not only by climate change but also underlying factors including unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, poverty, social inequalities and weak governance. Given its complexity, effective flood risk management requires a better understanding of its conceptual context and comprehensive assessments that beyond hazard consider exposure, vulnerability and capacity. The study proposes a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for assessing and mapping flood risk in the Thermi Basin in northern Greece, which is characterized by significant urban expansion, different land use/ land cover, dense hydrographic network, varied topography and seasonal precipitation events. The methodology analyzes seventeen parameters representing flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability/ capacity components. Parameter weighting is applied using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on expert judgments while Weighted Overlay Analysis is performed in GIS to create the flood risk map. The results indicate that 8,26% (503ha) of the study area is classified as low flood risk, 83,94% (5114ha) as moderate flood risk and 7,80% (476ha) as high flood risk. Impact analysis highlights
varying potential impacts on the environment, infrastructure and population and the validation against official Areas of Potential Significant Flood Risk (APSFR) and 18 flood-prone locations generally confirms the plausibility of the model’s results. Finally, the framework proposes some indicative strategies for each flood risk zone that planners and decision-makers can further develop to support their mitigation efforts.}},
author = {{Karapanagiotidou, Polyxeni}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science}},
title = {{GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for Flood Risk Assessment in the Thermi Basin}},
year = {{2026}},
}