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Building Mosques and Bombing Churches: A Structured Focused Comparison of Negotiation Willingness in Thailand and Myanmar Separatist Conflicts

Dahlgren, Alicia LU and Götmark Tüchsen, Björn Enoé LU (2026) FKVK02 20261
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This study examines why some separatist insurgencies negotiate while others continue armed struggle, focusing on BRN-C in Southern Thailand and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) in Myanmar. Despite similar ethnoreligious, peripheral, and long-standing conflicts, BRN-C entered negotiations with the Thai state in 2025, while KIO continued its insurgency. Using a Most Similar Different Outcome design and a Structured Focused Comparison grounded in Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict theory and complemented by natural resource theories, the study analyzes five variables: communal content, human needs, state governance, natural resources, and international linkages. The findings suggest that negotiation outcomes are primarily shaped by... (More)
This study examines why some separatist insurgencies negotiate while others continue armed struggle, focusing on BRN-C in Southern Thailand and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) in Myanmar. Despite similar ethnoreligious, peripheral, and long-standing conflicts, BRN-C entered negotiations with the Thai state in 2025, while KIO continued its insurgency. Using a Most Similar Different Outcome design and a Structured Focused Comparison grounded in Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict theory and complemented by natural resource theories, the study analyzes five variables: communal content, human needs, state governance, natural resources, and international linkages. The findings suggest that negotiation outcomes are primarily shaped by the interaction of state capacity, resource endowments, and external involvement. BRN-C’s negotiations are linked to relatively stronger state capacity, limited rebel resource autonomy, and facilitating external mediation, while KIO’s continued conflict reflects weak state legitimacy, resource-financed resilience, and sustaining external support from China. The study concludes that separatist negotiation behavior is best explained by structural interactions rather than single factors, while identity and grievances primarily explain conflict persistence rather than divergence in outcomes. (Less)
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author
Dahlgren, Alicia LU and Götmark Tüchsen, Björn Enoé LU
supervisor
organization
course
FKVK02 20261
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Protracted Social Conflict, separatist conflict, conflict duration, natural resources, Thailand, Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinasi, Myanmar, Kachin Independence Organization
language
English
id
9229091
date added to LUP
2026-06-16 15:14:06
date last changed
2026-06-16 15:14:06
@misc{9229091,
  abstract     = {{This study examines why some separatist insurgencies negotiate while others continue armed struggle, focusing on BRN-C in Southern Thailand and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) in Myanmar. Despite similar ethnoreligious, peripheral, and long-standing conflicts, BRN-C entered negotiations with the Thai state in 2025, while KIO continued its insurgency. Using a Most Similar Different Outcome design and a Structured Focused Comparison grounded in Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict theory and complemented by natural resource theories, the study analyzes five variables: communal content, human needs, state governance, natural resources, and international linkages. The findings suggest that negotiation outcomes are primarily shaped by the interaction of state capacity, resource endowments, and external involvement. BRN-C’s negotiations are linked to relatively stronger state capacity, limited rebel resource autonomy, and facilitating external mediation, while KIO’s continued conflict reflects weak state legitimacy, resource-financed resilience, and sustaining external support from China. The study concludes that separatist negotiation behavior is best explained by structural interactions rather than single factors, while identity and grievances primarily explain conflict persistence rather than divergence in outcomes.}},
  author       = {{Dahlgren, Alicia and Götmark Tüchsen, Björn Enoé}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Building Mosques and Bombing Churches: A Structured Focused Comparison of Negotiation Willingness in Thailand and Myanmar Separatist Conflicts}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}