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Fertility Decision-Making under Risk: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Study in Brazil

Lesenar, Hannah LU and Engellau, Seth LU (2026) NEKN01 20261
Department of Economics
Abstract (Swedish)
Below-replacement fertility rates have become a global phenomenon, with an increasing share of countries entering or reaching ever lower fertility levels. This paper makes two distinct contributions to the subject of fertility decline. First, it introduces a multicausal classification and mechanism model called VESPER, which organises key drivers of fertility decline into six categories commonly discussed in the literature: Values, Economics, Social, Partner, Environment, and Risk. Second, it empirically tests the risk dimension by examining whether a 2018 fertility awareness campaign conducted in Brazil affected the General Fertility Rate (GFR) in ten municipalities where it was conducted. A Difference-in-Differences analysis focusing on... (More)
Below-replacement fertility rates have become a global phenomenon, with an increasing share of countries entering or reaching ever lower fertility levels. This paper makes two distinct contributions to the subject of fertility decline. First, it introduces a multicausal classification and mechanism model called VESPER, which organises key drivers of fertility decline into six categories commonly discussed in the literature: Values, Economics, Social, Partner, Environment, and Risk. Second, it empirically tests the risk dimension by examining whether a 2018 fertility awareness campaign conducted in Brazil affected the General Fertility Rate (GFR) in ten municipalities where it was conducted. A Difference-in-Differences analysis focusing on women aged between 15 and 49 years, using municipal and year fixed effects across 5,565 municipalities, covering the period 2010 to 2024, was conducted. The results indicate that the campaign did not generate a positive GFR effect in the treated municipalities relative to the untreated municipalities, which we argue was due to the confounding effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the post-treatment years. We argue that the paper’s findings highlight the need to reconsider the scope, scale, and duration of future fertility awareness campaigns. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Lesenar, Hannah LU and Engellau, Seth LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20261
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Below-replacement fertility, decision-making under risk, Difference-in-Differences analysis, fertility awareness campaign, VESPER model.
language
English
id
9232498
date added to LUP
2026-10-12 11:02:08
date last changed
2026-10-12 11:02:08
@misc{9232498,
  abstract     = {{Below-replacement fertility rates have become a global phenomenon, with an increasing share of countries entering or reaching ever lower fertility levels. This paper makes two distinct contributions to the subject of fertility decline. First, it introduces a multicausal classification and mechanism model called VESPER, which organises key drivers of fertility decline into six categories commonly discussed in the literature: Values, Economics, Social, Partner, Environment, and Risk. Second, it empirically tests the risk dimension by examining whether a 2018 fertility awareness campaign conducted in Brazil affected the General Fertility Rate (GFR) in ten municipalities where it was conducted. A Difference-in-Differences analysis focusing on women aged between 15 and 49 years, using municipal and year fixed effects across 5,565 municipalities, covering the period 2010 to 2024, was conducted. The results indicate that the campaign did not generate a positive GFR effect in the treated municipalities relative to the untreated municipalities, which we argue was due to the confounding effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the post-treatment years. We argue that the paper’s findings highlight the need to reconsider the scope, scale, and duration of future fertility awareness campaigns.}},
  author       = {{Lesenar, Hannah and Engellau, Seth}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Fertility Decision-Making under Risk: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Study in Brazil}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}