The Effect of Party System Ideological Polarisation on Individual Affective Polarisation in Europe: Multilevel Evidence from 29 Countries from 1996 to 2021
(2026) SIMZ51 20261Master of Science in Social Scientific Data Analysis
- Abstract
- This thesis looks into how ideological polarisation of party systems (X) influences affective polarisation (Y) on the individual level. Taking off from social identity theory, I assume that larger ideological divergence between parties fosters more emotionally charged evaluations of political opponents because of identity-based in-group and out-group dynamics as well as due to being by virtue differences in beliefs. The latter are exemplified against the rise of cultural cleavages in political campaigns, which centralise more sensitive issues than traditional economic ones. Using data from Comparative Studies of Electoral Systems, the sample consists of around 170 thousand individual observations in 300 regions, nested in 29 European... (More)
- This thesis looks into how ideological polarisation of party systems (X) influences affective polarisation (Y) on the individual level. Taking off from social identity theory, I assume that larger ideological divergence between parties fosters more emotionally charged evaluations of political opponents because of identity-based in-group and out-group dynamics as well as due to being by virtue differences in beliefs. The latter are exemplified against the rise of cultural cleavages in political campaigns, which centralise more sensitive issues than traditional economic ones. Using data from Comparative Studies of Electoral Systems, the sample consists of around 170 thousand individual observations in 300 regions, nested in 29 European countries, throughout 115 elections from 1996 to 2021. Running three-level hierarchical models (individual-region-country), I found high heterogeneity between countries in both baseline affect levels and the slopes of the focal relationship that rejected any clear pan-European trends. Income inequality had no statistically significant average effect on affect, although individual extremism average estimates held positive, significant, and nearly identical both between- and within-countries. While the influence of party ideology on individual affect seems substantially contingent on political contexts, the extremity of individual beliefs reliably contributes to higher affect even when controlling for space and time. (Less)
- Popular Abstract
- This study looks at whether differences in party ideology make their voters more hostile to each other. I assume that when political parties have less in common, supporters of one party become more hostile towards supporters of the other party because of two reasons. One, to be truly one of "us" one needs to dislike "them"; and two, political debates have shifted from somewhat neutral, "boring" economic issues to more charged cultural ones (migration, abortion, national identity, etc.) since around 2000, which means that disagreements on politics now evoke much stronger emotions. To test these, I run statistical tests on data from ~170 thousand survey responses from 300 regions in 29 countries from 1996 to 2021. I find that there is a... (More)
- This study looks at whether differences in party ideology make their voters more hostile to each other. I assume that when political parties have less in common, supporters of one party become more hostile towards supporters of the other party because of two reasons. One, to be truly one of "us" one needs to dislike "them"; and two, political debates have shifted from somewhat neutral, "boring" economic issues to more charged cultural ones (migration, abortion, national identity, etc.) since around 2000, which means that disagreements on politics now evoke much stronger emotions. To test these, I run statistical tests on data from ~170 thousand survey responses from 300 regions in 29 countries from 1996 to 2021. I find that there is a connection between party ideology and voter hostility, but it varies a lot in different countries and in some cases, regions: Sweden and Denmark are among the most polarised countries (alongside Bulgaria and Poland) while the rest of the Nordics crowd in the lower end of the scale just above the least-polarised Netherlands; where hostility is higher on average, it is less or even negatively affected by party ideology. No one trend applies to all of Europe and researchers should look closer into less countries. Income inequality has no clear effect on hostility, but individual extremism shows consistent positive effects on individual hostility that stays the same between countries and over the years. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9233129
- author
- Ramanauskas, Saulius Simonas LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- SIMZ51 20261
- year
- 2026
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Europe, affective polarisation, ideological polarisation, multilevel analysis, social identity theory.
- language
- English
- id
- 9233129
- date added to LUP
- 2026-06-25 11:24:57
- date last changed
- 2026-06-25 11:24:57
@misc{9233129,
abstract = {{This thesis looks into how ideological polarisation of party systems (X) influences affective polarisation (Y) on the individual level. Taking off from social identity theory, I assume that larger ideological divergence between parties fosters more emotionally charged evaluations of political opponents because of identity-based in-group and out-group dynamics as well as due to being by virtue differences in beliefs. The latter are exemplified against the rise of cultural cleavages in political campaigns, which centralise more sensitive issues than traditional economic ones. Using data from Comparative Studies of Electoral Systems, the sample consists of around 170 thousand individual observations in 300 regions, nested in 29 European countries, throughout 115 elections from 1996 to 2021. Running three-level hierarchical models (individual-region-country), I found high heterogeneity between countries in both baseline affect levels and the slopes of the focal relationship that rejected any clear pan-European trends. Income inequality had no statistically significant average effect on affect, although individual extremism average estimates held positive, significant, and nearly identical both between- and within-countries. While the influence of party ideology on individual affect seems substantially contingent on political contexts, the extremity of individual beliefs reliably contributes to higher affect even when controlling for space and time.}},
author = {{Ramanauskas, Saulius Simonas}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{The Effect of Party System Ideological Polarisation on Individual Affective Polarisation in Europe: Multilevel Evidence from 29 Countries from 1996 to 2021}},
year = {{2026}},
}