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Does Planning Quality Matter? Results Frameworks, Adaptive Design, and Development Outcomes in World Bank Projects in South Asia

Kuckreja, Sargam LU (2026) EKHS21 20261
Department of Economic History
Abstract
Does the quality of project planning documents predict development outcomes? This thesis examines that question empirically using 1,110 World Bank Investment Project Financing operations in South Asia approved between 1958 and 2021. Drawing on the full text of project appraisal documents, the thesis constructs quantitative scores operationalising three competing theoretical frameworks: Results-Based Management, Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation, and the isomorphic mimicry hypothesis. These scores are then tested against the Independent Evaluation Group outcome ratings in a horse-race regression design across sixteen models. The results show that the results-based management infrastructure is the only framework that consistently and... (More)
Does the quality of project planning documents predict development outcomes? This thesis examines that question empirically using 1,110 World Bank Investment Project Financing operations in South Asia approved between 1958 and 2021. Drawing on the full text of project appraisal documents, the thesis constructs quantitative scores operationalising three competing theoretical frameworks: Results-Based Management, Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation, and the isomorphic mimicry hypothesis. These scores are then tested against the Independent Evaluation Group outcome ratings in a horse-race regression design across sixteen models. The results show that the results-based management infrastructure is the only framework that consistently and significantly predicts better outcomes, holding across specifications, sectors, and project types. Whereas adaptive design language shows no predictive power in any model and context specificity is only significant when predicting outcomes in the Governance sector, where institutional diagnosis is most consequential. Tangibility only shapes baseline difficulty but does not moderate the design-quality relationship. The finding positions planning quality as a modest, robust and cross-sectoral contributor to development outcomes, and can be seen as necessary but not sufficient. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Kuckreja, Sargam LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS21 20261
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Aid Effectiveness, Project Design Quality, Results-Based Management, Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation, Isomorphic Mimicry, World Bank, South Asia, Text-As-Data
language
English
id
9234867
date added to LUP
2026-09-07 13:50:14
date last changed
2026-09-07 13:50:14
@misc{9234867,
  abstract     = {{Does the quality of project planning documents predict development outcomes? This thesis examines that question empirically using 1,110 World Bank Investment Project Financing operations in South Asia approved between 1958 and 2021. Drawing on the full text of project appraisal documents, the thesis constructs quantitative scores operationalising three competing theoretical frameworks: Results-Based Management, Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation, and the isomorphic mimicry hypothesis. These scores are then tested against the Independent Evaluation Group outcome ratings in a horse-race regression design across sixteen models. The results show that the results-based management infrastructure is the only framework that consistently and significantly predicts better outcomes, holding across specifications, sectors, and project types. Whereas adaptive design language shows no predictive power in any model and context specificity is only significant when predicting outcomes in the Governance sector, where institutional diagnosis is most consequential. Tangibility only shapes baseline difficulty but does not moderate the design-quality relationship. The finding positions planning quality as a modest, robust and cross-sectoral contributor to development outcomes, and can be seen as necessary but not sufficient.}},
  author       = {{Kuckreja, Sargam}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Does Planning Quality Matter? Results Frameworks, Adaptive Design, and Development Outcomes in World Bank Projects in South Asia}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}