The Hidden Carbon Cost of AI: Data Centre Electricity Demand and Climate Implications for Sweden
(2026) EKHS21 20261Department of Economic History
- Abstract
- The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has made data centres a significant and growing source of electricity demand. This study projects AI-driven data centre electricity demand in Sweden for the years 2022 to 2045, and further quantifies its implications for Sweden’s 2030 and 2045 climate targets. Using a three-step methodological approach, the study constructs a total data centre electricity baseline, models enterprise AI adoption through a logistic S-curve with an infrastructure lag parameter, and calculates direct emissions and carbon opportunity costs across three competing industrial decarbonisation uses. Projected AI-driven electricity demand is expected to reach the equivalent of approximately 8 percent of Sweden's... (More)
- The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has made data centres a significant and growing source of electricity demand. This study projects AI-driven data centre electricity demand in Sweden for the years 2022 to 2045, and further quantifies its implications for Sweden’s 2030 and 2045 climate targets. Using a three-step methodological approach, the study constructs a total data centre electricity baseline, models enterprise AI adoption through a logistic S-curve with an infrastructure lag parameter, and calculates direct emissions and carbon opportunity costs across three competing industrial decarbonisation uses. Projected AI-driven electricity demand is expected to reach the equivalent of approximately 8 percent of Sweden's current total annual emissions by 2045 under the marginal carbon intensity scenario, while the carbon opportunity cost of AI further amplifies this tension. The central finding indicates that AI data centre growth will make the climate targets for Sweden meaningfully harder to achieve, a pressure that remains unaddressed in current Swedish climate policy. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9235522
- author
- Furtado Brlenic, Deni LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- EKHS21 20261
- year
- 2026
- type
- H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
- subject
- language
- English
- id
- 9235522
- date added to LUP
- 2026-09-07 13:49:47
- date last changed
- 2026-09-07 13:49:47
@misc{9235522,
abstract = {{The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has made data centres a significant and growing source of electricity demand. This study projects AI-driven data centre electricity demand in Sweden for the years 2022 to 2045, and further quantifies its implications for Sweden’s 2030 and 2045 climate targets. Using a three-step methodological approach, the study constructs a total data centre electricity baseline, models enterprise AI adoption through a logistic S-curve with an infrastructure lag parameter, and calculates direct emissions and carbon opportunity costs across three competing industrial decarbonisation uses. Projected AI-driven electricity demand is expected to reach the equivalent of approximately 8 percent of Sweden's current total annual emissions by 2045 under the marginal carbon intensity scenario, while the carbon opportunity cost of AI further amplifies this tension. The central finding indicates that AI data centre growth will make the climate targets for Sweden meaningfully harder to achieve, a pressure that remains unaddressed in current Swedish climate policy.}},
author = {{Furtado Brlenic, Deni}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{The Hidden Carbon Cost of AI: Data Centre Electricity Demand and Climate Implications for Sweden}},
year = {{2026}},
}