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Wildfire Risk in a Changing Climate: Assessing spatiotemporal trends in wildfire risk in Sweden based on meteorological indices and their alignment with past fires

Heinen, Paula LU (2026) NGEK11 20261
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (MGeo)
Abstract
Forest fires are a natural disturbance in the Swedish landscape. These are largely dependent on meteorological conditions. However, anthropogenic interference and climate change are shifting natural patterns of fire behaviour. The present study examined trends in weather parameters influencing forest fire activity to improve the understanding of changing fire risk in Sweden. Data from twelve weather stations of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in three geographical regions (northern, central and southern Sweden) were analysed to assess spatial differences between these changes. Using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), this study identified an increase in the number of fire risk days and the duration of the fire... (More)
Forest fires are a natural disturbance in the Swedish landscape. These are largely dependent on meteorological conditions. However, anthropogenic interference and climate change are shifting natural patterns of fire behaviour. The present study examined trends in weather parameters influencing forest fire activity to improve the understanding of changing fire risk in Sweden. Data from twelve weather stations of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in three geographical regions (northern, central and southern Sweden) were analysed to assess spatial differences between these changes. Using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), this study identified an increase in the number of fire risk days and the duration of the fire season.
Evaluating ERA 5 reanalysis data revealed an increase in maximum daily temperature and a wetting trend based on the Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) across Sweden. Positive trends in fire risk were relatively stronger in the South compared to the North of Sweden. Fire risk is increasing more rapidly in spring and earlier compared to later in the summer.
Burnt areas were moderately well correlated to temperature anomalies and SPEI while FWI showed nearly no predictive power. There was an overall weak correlation of parameters with fire size. However, for all large fires, a certain threshold had to be exceeded across all parameters.
Overall, the results suggest an increasing wildfire risk across Sweden with especially strong trends in the South and earlier in the year. This will put additional pressure on firefighting resources making continuous research in this field crucial to protect lives and ecosystems. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Heinen, Paula LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK11 20261
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Climate change, Wildfire risk, Canadian Fire Weather Index, SPEI, Temperature increase, Wildfire indices, Sweden
language
English
id
9237940
date added to LUP
2026-06-16 10:28:19
date last changed
2026-06-16 10:28:19
@misc{9237940,
  abstract     = {{Forest fires are a natural disturbance in the Swedish landscape. These are largely dependent on meteorological conditions. However, anthropogenic interference and climate change are shifting natural patterns of fire behaviour. The present study examined trends in weather parameters influencing forest fire activity to improve the understanding of changing fire risk in Sweden. Data from twelve weather stations of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in three geographical regions (northern, central and southern Sweden) were analysed to assess spatial differences between these changes. Using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), this study identified an increase in the number of fire risk days and the duration of the fire season. 
Evaluating ERA 5 reanalysis data revealed an increase in maximum daily temperature and a wetting trend based on the Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) across Sweden. Positive trends in fire risk were relatively stronger in the South compared to the North of Sweden. Fire risk is increasing more rapidly in spring and earlier compared to later in the summer.
Burnt areas were moderately well correlated to temperature anomalies and SPEI while FWI showed nearly no predictive power. There was an overall weak correlation of parameters with fire size. However, for all large fires, a certain threshold had to be exceeded across all parameters.
Overall, the results suggest an increasing wildfire risk across Sweden with especially strong trends in the South and earlier in the year. This will put additional pressure on firefighting resources making continuous research in this field crucial to protect lives and ecosystems.}},
  author       = {{Heinen, Paula}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Wildfire Risk in a Changing Climate: Assessing spatiotemporal trends in wildfire risk in Sweden based on meteorological indices and their alignment with past fires}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}