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Carrots Without Sticks? Industrial Policy, GVC Upgrading, and the EV Transition in Thailand (2020-2025)

Bernardi, Emma LU (2026) EKHS21 20261
Department of Economic History
Abstract (Swedish)
This thesis evaluates whether Thailand’s EV industrial policies, EV 3.0 and EV 3.5, have supported domestic industrial upgrading or reorganised foreign dependency under new technological conditions. It develops a framework combining global value chain governance theory, leapfrogging theory and product cycle theory, operationalised through four diagnostic conditions: lead firm control, knowledge transfer, domestic absorptive capacity and policy enforceability. Using a qualitative single case design, the thesis combines policy document analysis and process tracing to link policy design to investment, production and supply chain outcomes between 2020 and April 2026. The empirical material draws on BOI statistics, EV Policy Committee... (More)
This thesis evaluates whether Thailand’s EV industrial policies, EV 3.0 and EV 3.5, have supported domestic industrial upgrading or reorganised foreign dependency under new technological conditions. It develops a framework combining global value chain governance theory, leapfrogging theory and product cycle theory, operationalised through four diagnostic conditions: lead firm control, knowledge transfer, domestic absorptive capacity and policy enforceability. Using a qualitative single case design, the thesis combines policy document analysis and process tracing to link policy design to investment, production and supply chain outcomes between 2020 and April 2026. The empirical material draws on BOI statistics, EV Policy Committee resolutions, academic literature and firm level evidence on Chinese EV and battery investment. The findings show rapid market adoption and substantial investment, but limited functional upgrading. Thailand’s EV transition is therefore best understood as a hybrid outcome: partial process and product upgrading within continued foreign led governance. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Bernardi, Emma LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS21 20261
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
language
English
id
9239341
date added to LUP
2026-09-07 13:49:31
date last changed
2026-09-07 13:49:31
@misc{9239341,
  abstract     = {{This thesis evaluates whether Thailand’s EV industrial policies, EV 3.0 and EV 3.5, have supported domestic industrial upgrading or reorganised foreign dependency under new technological conditions. It develops a framework combining global value chain governance theory, leapfrogging theory and product cycle theory, operationalised through four diagnostic conditions: lead firm control, knowledge transfer, domestic absorptive capacity and policy enforceability. Using a qualitative single case design, the thesis combines policy document analysis and process tracing to link policy design to investment, production and supply chain outcomes between 2020 and April 2026. The empirical material draws on BOI statistics, EV Policy Committee resolutions, academic literature and firm level evidence on Chinese EV and battery investment. The findings show rapid market adoption and substantial investment, but limited functional upgrading. Thailand’s EV transition is therefore best understood as a hybrid outcome: partial process and product upgrading within continued foreign led governance.}},
  author       = {{Bernardi, Emma}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Carrots Without Sticks? Industrial Policy, GVC Upgrading, and the EV Transition in Thailand (2020-2025)}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}