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Permafrost degradation in a changing climate: Evolution of the Batagay megaslump

Winter, Ksenia LU (2026) NGEK11 20261
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (MGeo)
Abstract
The Arctic is warming rapidly leading to the development of new thermokarst landscape features. Among the most rapidly developing landforms are retrogressive thaw slumps. The largest known thaw slump is the Batagay megaslump located in the Sakha republic, Russia. This thesis aims to assess the thaw slumps growth’ and yearly retreat rates through systematic digitization of openly accessible satellite imagery sourced from Copernicus and USGS, covering 1991 and the period from 1999 to 2025.Directional expansion is examined using 18 transect lines radiating from a central point in 20° increments. The mean annual expansion is calculated across all transects to assess annual growth patterns and retreat rates. Regional climate conditions and... (More)
The Arctic is warming rapidly leading to the development of new thermokarst landscape features. Among the most rapidly developing landforms are retrogressive thaw slumps. The largest known thaw slump is the Batagay megaslump located in the Sakha republic, Russia. This thesis aims to assess the thaw slumps growth’ and yearly retreat rates through systematic digitization of openly accessible satellite imagery sourced from Copernicus and USGS, covering 1991 and the period from 1999 to 2025.Directional expansion is examined using 18 transect lines radiating from a central point in 20° increments. The mean annual expansion is calculated across all transects to assess annual growth patterns and retreat rates. Regional climate conditions and potential climate shifts are analyzed to contextualize changes in the thaw slump. Finally, the relationship between climatic drivers such as mean annual temperature, seasonal temperature, thawing degree days, annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation and the RTS’ annual retreat rate is quantified. The results reveal an asymmetrical growth pattern, with larger retreat in southwestern direction. The overall rate of the RTS expansion decreases after 2010, whilst the RTS areal extend further expands. Climate analysis reveals warming trends for mean annual temperature, spring, summer and autumn, whilst winter temperatures decrease. Yearly and seasonal precipitation remain unchanged. Statistical regression analysis for the period 2002-2025 yields no significant relationships between climate variables and annual RTS retreat, with the exception for summer temperatures (Jun-Aug and May-Sept) of the preceding year. (Less)
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author
Winter, Ksenia LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK11 20261
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Batagay megaslump, retrogressive thaw slump, permafrost degradation, thermokarst landform, climate change
language
English
id
9241848
date added to LUP
2026-06-22 10:28:23
date last changed
2026-06-22 10:28:23
@misc{9241848,
  abstract     = {{The Arctic is warming rapidly leading to the development of new thermokarst landscape features. Among the most rapidly developing landforms are retrogressive thaw slumps. The largest known thaw slump is the Batagay megaslump located in the Sakha republic, Russia. This thesis aims to assess the thaw slumps growth’ and yearly retreat rates through systematic digitization of openly accessible satellite imagery sourced from Copernicus and USGS, covering 1991 and the period from 1999 to 2025.Directional expansion is examined using 18 transect lines radiating from a central point in 20° increments. The mean annual expansion is calculated across all transects to assess annual growth patterns and retreat rates. Regional climate conditions and potential climate shifts are analyzed to contextualize changes in the thaw slump. Finally, the relationship between climatic drivers such as mean annual temperature, seasonal temperature, thawing degree days, annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation and the RTS’ annual retreat rate is quantified. The results reveal an asymmetrical growth pattern, with larger retreat in southwestern direction. The overall rate of the RTS expansion decreases after 2010, whilst the RTS areal extend further expands. Climate analysis reveals warming trends for mean annual temperature, spring, summer and autumn, whilst winter temperatures decrease. Yearly and seasonal precipitation remain unchanged. Statistical regression analysis for the period 2002-2025 yields no significant relationships between climate variables and annual RTS retreat, with the exception for summer temperatures (Jun-Aug and May-Sept) of the preceding year.}},
  author       = {{Winter, Ksenia}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Permafrost degradation in a changing climate: Evolution of the Batagay megaslump}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}