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Does Blue Finance Matter? A Comparative Synthetic Control Study of Seychelles and the Bahamas

Campaniello, Francesco Paolo LU (2026) EKHS42 20261
Department of Economic History
Abstract
This thesis investigated whether including binding financial commitments in an integrated
blue economy policy programme yields measurably different outcomes compared to an
otherwise similar unfinanced framework. The Seychelles and the Bahamas adopted comparable
whole-of-government frameworks within three years of each other, differing most clearly in
financing architecture: Seychelles embedded binding finance through a debt-for-nature swap,
SeyCCAT, and a sovereign blue bond, whereas the Bahamas deferred comparable instruments
to future study. SCM, ASCM, and SDID are applied across six outcome domains organised by
the Shades of Blue framework. The results are mechanism-specific: the financed framework
is associated with stronger... (More)
This thesis investigated whether including binding financial commitments in an integrated
blue economy policy programme yields measurably different outcomes compared to an
otherwise similar unfinanced framework. The Seychelles and the Bahamas adopted comparable
whole-of-government frameworks within three years of each other, differing most clearly in
financing architecture: Seychelles embedded binding finance through a debt-for-nature swap,
SeyCCAT, and a sovereign blue bond, whereas the Bahamas deferred comparable instruments
to future study. SCM, ASCM, and SDID are applied across six outcome domains organised by
the Shades of Blue framework. The results are mechanism-specific: the financed framework
is associated with stronger outcomes in marine protected area expansion and fishery capture,
the domains most directly connected to the financing channel, with no robust advantage
elsewhere. The findings suggest that integrated blue economy frameworks are more likely to
generate measurable change when paired with dedicated instruments and concrete implementation
mechanisms. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Campaniello, Francesco Paolo LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS42 20261
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
language
English
id
9242060
date added to LUP
2026-09-07 13:55:41
date last changed
2026-09-07 13:55:41
@misc{9242060,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigated whether including binding financial commitments in an integrated
blue economy policy programme yields measurably different outcomes compared to an
otherwise similar unfinanced framework. The Seychelles and the Bahamas adopted comparable
whole-of-government frameworks within three years of each other, differing most clearly in
financing architecture: Seychelles embedded binding finance through a debt-for-nature swap,
SeyCCAT, and a sovereign blue bond, whereas the Bahamas deferred comparable instruments
to future study. SCM, ASCM, and SDID are applied across six outcome domains organised by
the Shades of Blue framework. The results are mechanism-specific: the financed framework
is associated with stronger outcomes in marine protected area expansion and fishery capture,
the domains most directly connected to the financing channel, with no robust advantage
elsewhere. The findings suggest that integrated blue economy frameworks are more likely to
generate measurable change when paired with dedicated instruments and concrete implementation
mechanisms.}},
  author       = {{Campaniello, Francesco Paolo}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Does Blue Finance Matter? A Comparative Synthetic Control Study of Seychelles and the Bahamas}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}