How can the state of Tuvalu keep its head above water? Exploring the preparation for the transitional process from the current state to a condition of uninhabitability and ultimately full territorial loss due to sea-level rise
(2026) VBRM15 20261Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
- Abstract
- Tuvalu, a sovereign island state in the Pacific, faces an unprecedented threat: entering a condition of uninhabitability and losing its land territory due to sea-level rise (SLR). While its inhabitants fight passionately to preserve their home, their remarkable culture, and statehood, existing scientific and legal frameworks remain fragmented to address the situation. The thesis aimed to develop a transitional model of a possible worst-case scenario of full habitable land loss due to sea-level rise in Tuvalu. Additionally, it aims to identify how Tuvalu is currently preparing for this worst-case scenario.
The thesis adopts an abductive approach, following a scoping study framework and including five expert interviews. The findings of both... (More) - Tuvalu, a sovereign island state in the Pacific, faces an unprecedented threat: entering a condition of uninhabitability and losing its land territory due to sea-level rise (SLR). While its inhabitants fight passionately to preserve their home, their remarkable culture, and statehood, existing scientific and legal frameworks remain fragmented to address the situation. The thesis aimed to develop a transitional model of a possible worst-case scenario of full habitable land loss due to sea-level rise in Tuvalu. Additionally, it aims to identify how Tuvalu is currently preparing for this worst-case scenario.
The thesis adopts an abductive approach, following a scoping study framework and including five expert interviews. The findings of both components are synthesised in the model, chronologically tracing the worst-imaginable scenario. Key findings arranged on the model suggest anthropogenic pressures, changing weather and oceanic conditions - with SLR leading the way - as main drivers of Tuvalu’s challenges. The influence of SLR runs through various disciplines, eroding habitability-determining factors: reliable freshwater and food supply, habitable land, safe settlements, economic activities, and community life. Beyond, the pace of the possible transition is influenced by atoll morphology, media representation, power asymmetries and the Tuvaluans’ strong land attachment. Adaptation measures, including resolving legal questions surrounding the continuation of statehood and the maintenance of maritime entitlements, are part of Tuvalu’s preparation for the future. Tuvalu does everything in its power to keep its head above water - literally and figuratively. The question is whether research, the international community, and law will rise to meet the challenges. (Less)
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9244756
- author
- Gnann, Salome Renate LU and Windhorst, Josephine Elena Tyskke LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- VBRM15 20261
- year
- 2026
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Disappearing States, Habitability, Preparedness, PSIDS, Sea-level rise, Transitional model, Tuvalu
- language
- English
- id
- 9244756
- date added to LUP
- 2026-06-29 10:39:51
- date last changed
- 2026-06-29 10:39:51
@misc{9244756,
abstract = {{Tuvalu, a sovereign island state in the Pacific, faces an unprecedented threat: entering a condition of uninhabitability and losing its land territory due to sea-level rise (SLR). While its inhabitants fight passionately to preserve their home, their remarkable culture, and statehood, existing scientific and legal frameworks remain fragmented to address the situation. The thesis aimed to develop a transitional model of a possible worst-case scenario of full habitable land loss due to sea-level rise in Tuvalu. Additionally, it aims to identify how Tuvalu is currently preparing for this worst-case scenario.
The thesis adopts an abductive approach, following a scoping study framework and including five expert interviews. The findings of both components are synthesised in the model, chronologically tracing the worst-imaginable scenario. Key findings arranged on the model suggest anthropogenic pressures, changing weather and oceanic conditions - with SLR leading the way - as main drivers of Tuvalu’s challenges. The influence of SLR runs through various disciplines, eroding habitability-determining factors: reliable freshwater and food supply, habitable land, safe settlements, economic activities, and community life. Beyond, the pace of the possible transition is influenced by atoll morphology, media representation, power asymmetries and the Tuvaluans’ strong land attachment. Adaptation measures, including resolving legal questions surrounding the continuation of statehood and the maintenance of maritime entitlements, are part of Tuvalu’s preparation for the future. Tuvalu does everything in its power to keep its head above water - literally and figuratively. The question is whether research, the international community, and law will rise to meet the challenges.}},
author = {{Gnann, Salome Renate and Windhorst, Josephine Elena Tyskke}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{How can the state of Tuvalu keep its head above water? Exploring the preparation for the transitional process from the current state to a condition of uninhabitability and ultimately full territorial loss due to sea-level rise}},
year = {{2026}},
}