Global disease transmission - What if SARS would have been more lethal?
(2011) FYTK01 20111Computational Biology and Biological Physics - Undergoing reorganization
- Abstract
- Global disease transmission is an important area, since knowledge of the time of the onset of an epidemic in a region might help authorities to save many lives.
In this thesis I have used a deterministic model with eight parameters, of which two were time dependent, for spreading of the SARS disease. My model is an extension of a model by Colizza and co-workers, where I have added a Heaviside step function, that prevent latent people to interact if they are to few. I have also added a ”repulsion factor”, that reduces the traffic to an infected city. In my model I used data on how 3,147 of the airports of the world are connected. The strength of the connections were not given, so they were estimated, using the population sizes of the cities.... (More) - Global disease transmission is an important area, since knowledge of the time of the onset of an epidemic in a region might help authorities to save many lives.
In this thesis I have used a deterministic model with eight parameters, of which two were time dependent, for spreading of the SARS disease. My model is an extension of a model by Colizza and co-workers, where I have added a Heaviside step function, that prevent latent people to interact if they are to few. I have also added a ”repulsion factor”, that reduces the traffic to an infected city. In my model I used data on how 3,147 of the airports of the world are connected. The strength of the connections were not given, so they were estimated, using the population sizes of the cities. The corresponding rate equations was solved by computer programs, written by me in Java, one of which displayed the result on a map. A major finding of this thesis is that vaccination can be used to prevent an epidemic from fully break out, and the doses are preferably concentrated to well connected regions, although the effect is not dramatical. This is demonstrated by comparing the effect of vaccinating London, with the effect of vaccinating Tianjin, and with the effect of vaccinating New York. I also demonstrate that the latency of a disease is an important factor for mortality of a disease. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/2204770
- author
- Lagerstedt, Erik LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- FYTK01 20111
- year
- 2011
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- disease spreading, SARS, SIS-model
- language
- English
- id
- 2204770
- date added to LUP
- 2011-11-21 08:46:12
- date last changed
- 2017-10-06 16:35:55
@misc{2204770,
abstract = {{Global disease transmission is an important area, since knowledge of the time of the onset of an epidemic in a region might help authorities to save many lives.
In this thesis I have used a deterministic model with eight parameters, of which two were time dependent, for spreading of the SARS disease. My model is an extension of a model by Colizza and co-workers, where I have added a Heaviside step function, that prevent latent people to interact if they are to few. I have also added a ”repulsion factor”, that reduces the traffic to an infected city. In my model I used data on how 3,147 of the airports of the world are connected. The strength of the connections were not given, so they were estimated, using the population sizes of the cities. The corresponding rate equations was solved by computer programs, written by me in Java, one of which displayed the result on a map. A major finding of this thesis is that vaccination can be used to prevent an epidemic from fully break out, and the doses are preferably concentrated to well connected regions, although the effect is not dramatical. This is demonstrated by comparing the effect of vaccinating London, with the effect of vaccinating Tianjin, and with the effect of vaccinating New York. I also demonstrate that the latency of a disease is an important factor for mortality of a disease.}},
author = {{Lagerstedt, Erik}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Global disease transmission - What if SARS would have been more lethal?}},
year = {{2011}},
}