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Global disease transmission - What if SARS would have been more lethal?

Lagerstedt, Erik LU (2011) FYTK01 20111
Computational Biology and Biological Physics
Abstract
Global disease transmission is an important area, since knowledge of the time of the onset of an epidemic in a region might help authorities to save many lives.
In this thesis I have used a deterministic model with eight parameters, of which two were time dependent, for spreading of the SARS disease. My model is an extension of a model by Colizza and co-workers, where I have added a Heaviside step function, that prevent latent people to interact if they are to few. I have also added a ”repulsion factor”, that reduces the traffic to an infected city. In my model I used data on how 3,147 of the airports of the world are connected. The strength of the connections were not given, so they were estimated, using the population sizes of the cities.... (More)
Global disease transmission is an important area, since knowledge of the time of the onset of an epidemic in a region might help authorities to save many lives.
In this thesis I have used a deterministic model with eight parameters, of which two were time dependent, for spreading of the SARS disease. My model is an extension of a model by Colizza and co-workers, where I have added a Heaviside step function, that prevent latent people to interact if they are to few. I have also added a ”repulsion factor”, that reduces the traffic to an infected city. In my model I used data on how 3,147 of the airports of the world are connected. The strength of the connections were not given, so they were estimated, using the population sizes of the cities. The corresponding rate equations was solved by computer programs, written by me in Java, one of which displayed the result on a map. A major finding of this thesis is that vaccination can be used to prevent an epidemic from fully break out, and the doses are preferably concentrated to well connected regions, although the effect is not dramatical. This is demonstrated by comparing the effect of vaccinating London, with the effect of vaccinating Tianjin, and with the effect of vaccinating New York. I also demonstrate that the latency of a disease is an important factor for mortality of a disease. (Less)
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author
Lagerstedt, Erik LU
supervisor
organization
course
FYTK01 20111
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
disease spreading, SARS, SIS-model
language
English
id
2204770
date added to LUP
2011-11-21 08:46:12
date last changed
2017-10-06 16:35:55
@misc{2204770,
  abstract     = {Global disease transmission is an important area, since knowledge of the time of the onset of an epidemic in a region might help authorities to save many lives.
In this thesis I have used a deterministic model with eight parameters, of which two were time dependent, for spreading of the SARS disease. My model is an extension of a model by Colizza and co-workers, where I have added a Heaviside step function, that prevent latent people to interact if they are to few. I have also added a ”repulsion factor”, that reduces the traffic to an infected city. In my model I used data on how 3,147 of the airports of the world are connected. The strength of the connections were not given, so they were estimated, using the population sizes of the cities. The corresponding rate equations was solved by computer programs, written by me in Java, one of which displayed the result on a map. A major finding of this thesis is that vaccination can be used to prevent an epidemic from fully break out, and the doses are preferably concentrated to well connected regions, although the effect is not dramatical. This is demonstrated by comparing the effect of vaccinating London, with the effect of vaccinating Tianjin, and with the effect of vaccinating New York. I also demonstrate that the latency of a disease is an important factor for mortality of a disease.},
  author       = {Lagerstedt, Erik},
  keyword      = {disease spreading,SARS,SIS-model},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Global disease transmission - What if SARS would have been more lethal?},
  year         = {2011},
}