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To what extent may a decline in schooling caused by the covid-19 pandemic affect Kenya’s GDP? A Scenario Modeling Approach using Multiple Linear Regression

af Petersens, Fanny LU (2021) NEKH01 20211
Department of Economics
Abstract
This study focuses on the relationship between education and economic growth, specifically the effect a potential decline in schooling caused by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic would have on the economic growth of a country. Using an inductive approach, the study focuses on the Sub- Saharan African countries, especially Kenya, since there is anecdotal evidence that a significant number of students have not returned to school after the closures caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The study models a hypothetical scenario with a drop in schooling of one year and analyzes how it would differ from a base scenario without any drop in education. As education is recognized as an important factor of economic growth, the potential impact of the pandemic... (More)
This study focuses on the relationship between education and economic growth, specifically the effect a potential decline in schooling caused by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic would have on the economic growth of a country. Using an inductive approach, the study focuses on the Sub- Saharan African countries, especially Kenya, since there is anecdotal evidence that a significant number of students have not returned to school after the closures caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The study models a hypothetical scenario with a drop in schooling of one year and analyzes how it would differ from a base scenario without any drop in education. As education is recognized as an important factor of economic growth, the potential impact of the pandemic on educational attainment is an important subject to analyze. Two regressions based on the Solow model with human capital were used, the first for predicting human capital with the independent variables of population and average years of schooling. The result was used as a basis for the second regression to predict future GDP levels. The results suggest that a one-year drop in average years of schooling would cause a long-run expanding negative effect on GDP. This is cause for concern and increased focus on education, especially in emerging economies such as many of the Sub-Saharan countries. The study further provides thoughts for how future research regarding this subject could be conducted, and why it is needed. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
af Petersens, Fanny LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH01 20211
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Schooling, Scenario Modeling, Human Capital, GDP, The Solow Model, Kenya, Sub- Saharan Africa, Economic Growth, Covid-19
language
English
id
9057184
date added to LUP
2021-07-05 13:38:00
date last changed
2021-07-05 13:38:01
@misc{9057184,
  abstract     = {{This study focuses on the relationship between education and economic growth, specifically the effect a potential decline in schooling caused by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic would have on the economic growth of a country. Using an inductive approach, the study focuses on the Sub- Saharan African countries, especially Kenya, since there is anecdotal evidence that a significant number of students have not returned to school after the closures caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The study models a hypothetical scenario with a drop in schooling of one year and analyzes how it would differ from a base scenario without any drop in education. As education is recognized as an important factor of economic growth, the potential impact of the pandemic on educational attainment is an important subject to analyze. Two regressions based on the Solow model with human capital were used, the first for predicting human capital with the independent variables of population and average years of schooling. The result was used as a basis for the second regression to predict future GDP levels. The results suggest that a one-year drop in average years of schooling would cause a long-run expanding negative effect on GDP. This is cause for concern and increased focus on education, especially in emerging economies such as many of the Sub-Saharan countries. The study further provides thoughts for how future research regarding this subject could be conducted, and why it is needed.}},
  author       = {{af Petersens, Fanny}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{To what extent may a decline in schooling caused by the covid-19 pandemic affect Kenya’s GDP? A Scenario Modeling Approach using Multiple Linear Regression}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}