Forecasting Technological Diffusion through Analogies: Examining Historical Technologies to Assess the Future Growth of Green Hydrogen Electrolysis and Pipeline Network as Climate Mitigation Technologies
(2023) In IIIEE Master Thesis IMEM02 20231The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics
- Abstract
- Green hydrogen is an advantageous clean energy carrier that enables the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors and addresses the intermittency of renewables. However, its global production is currently constrained by inadequate infrastructure, high investment risks, and relatively technological infancy. Failure to scale green hydrogen could hinder decarbonization efforts and climate goals. Recognizing these issues, this thesis examines the future growth of green hydrogen electrolysis in the EU and hydrogen pipelines in Europe using reference cases or historical technologies. Represented in feasibility spaces – multiparameter spaces for visualizing and assessing climate solutions to represent their likelihood of materializing – the... (More)
- Green hydrogen is an advantageous clean energy carrier that enables the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors and addresses the intermittency of renewables. However, its global production is currently constrained by inadequate infrastructure, high investment risks, and relatively technological infancy. Failure to scale green hydrogen could hinder decarbonization efforts and climate goals. Recognizing these issues, this thesis examines the future growth of green hydrogen electrolysis in the EU and hydrogen pipelines in Europe using reference cases or historical technologies. Represented in feasibility spaces – multiparameter spaces for visualizing and assessing climate solutions to represent their likelihood of materializing – the maximum growth rates of the reference cases were evaluated against the required growth rates to achieve the future targets of the REPowerEU Plan, the EU’s Hydrogen Roadmap, and the European Hydrogen Backbone. The results indicate that certain historical technologies, such as French nuclear power, Danish wind power, and German solar power, have surpassed the required growth rates for green hydrogen electrolysis, suggesting precedents that the required growth for green hydrogen electrolysis is within reach. However, solar and wind power in the EU fall short by 25% of achieving the necessary growth rates. For hydrogen pipelines, the study shows that the maximum growth rate of natural gas pipelines in Europe fails to reach pipeline addition targets by 15-30%. However, it may still be achievable with increased investment and accelerated growth. It is essential to consider the limitations and differences between the reference cases and target cases and tailor policy and technological diffusion insights from the selected reference cases to the unique geopolitical and socioeconomic landscape of the EU and Europe. Unlike previous studies focusing on engineering aspects, this thesis contributes to technology forecasting literature, particularly in formulating an analytical framework for reference case selection and using reference cases to assess the future growth of green hydrogen electrolysis and hydrogen pipelines. Scaling green hydrogen electrolysis and pipeline networks poses complex challenges but using established technologies as reference cases can inform methodologies and policies in the context of the EU. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9134026
- author
- Cerillo, Renz Homer LU
- supervisor
-
- Aleh Cherp LU
- organization
- course
- IMEM02 20231
- year
- 2023
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Technology diffusion, green hydrogen, electrolyze, pipeline, feasibility spaces, reference case forecasting
- publication/series
- IIIEE Master Thesis
- report number
- 2023:36
- ISSN
- 1401-9191
- language
- English
- id
- 9134026
- date added to LUP
- 2023-08-14 09:25:56
- date last changed
- 2023-08-14 09:25:56
@misc{9134026, abstract = {{Green hydrogen is an advantageous clean energy carrier that enables the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors and addresses the intermittency of renewables. However, its global production is currently constrained by inadequate infrastructure, high investment risks, and relatively technological infancy. Failure to scale green hydrogen could hinder decarbonization efforts and climate goals. Recognizing these issues, this thesis examines the future growth of green hydrogen electrolysis in the EU and hydrogen pipelines in Europe using reference cases or historical technologies. Represented in feasibility spaces – multiparameter spaces for visualizing and assessing climate solutions to represent their likelihood of materializing – the maximum growth rates of the reference cases were evaluated against the required growth rates to achieve the future targets of the REPowerEU Plan, the EU’s Hydrogen Roadmap, and the European Hydrogen Backbone. The results indicate that certain historical technologies, such as French nuclear power, Danish wind power, and German solar power, have surpassed the required growth rates for green hydrogen electrolysis, suggesting precedents that the required growth for green hydrogen electrolysis is within reach. However, solar and wind power in the EU fall short by 25% of achieving the necessary growth rates. For hydrogen pipelines, the study shows that the maximum growth rate of natural gas pipelines in Europe fails to reach pipeline addition targets by 15-30%. However, it may still be achievable with increased investment and accelerated growth. It is essential to consider the limitations and differences between the reference cases and target cases and tailor policy and technological diffusion insights from the selected reference cases to the unique geopolitical and socioeconomic landscape of the EU and Europe. Unlike previous studies focusing on engineering aspects, this thesis contributes to technology forecasting literature, particularly in formulating an analytical framework for reference case selection and using reference cases to assess the future growth of green hydrogen electrolysis and hydrogen pipelines. Scaling green hydrogen electrolysis and pipeline networks poses complex challenges but using established technologies as reference cases can inform methodologies and policies in the context of the EU.}}, author = {{Cerillo, Renz Homer}}, issn = {{1401-9191}}, language = {{eng}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, series = {{IIIEE Master Thesis}}, title = {{Forecasting Technological Diffusion through Analogies: Examining Historical Technologies to Assess the Future Growth of Green Hydrogen Electrolysis and Pipeline Network as Climate Mitigation Technologies}}, year = {{2023}}, }